Published on: October 3, 2024, 10:29h.

Last updated on: October 3, 2024, 10:29h.

The 2024 United States presidential election is sparking discussion on the accuracy of polling versus betting markets in predicting election outcomes.

On October 3, with 32 days until the Nov. 5 election, former President Donald Trump has now become the betting favorite on political betting exchanges and sportsbooks in the UK and Europe. Vice President Kamala Harris had been the favorite following her win in the September 10 debate against Trump.

Recent strong performances by U.S. Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have shifted the betting markets back in favor of Trump. Polymarket has seen almost $1.2 billion in bets on the election, with more money placed on a Trump victory.

Polymarket indicates a 50% chance for Trump to win the 2024 election, with Harris slightly behind at 49%.

Shares on Trump winning total $231,874,504 on Polymarket, compared to $226,459,888 on a Harris victory.

Differences in Odds and Polls

Betfair, another peer-to-peer betting exchange, also shows Trump as the favored candidate for the 2024 election. Trump’s odds are at -105, implying a 51.2% chance of winning, while Harris is an underdog with even odds and a 50% chance.

While bettors lean towards Trump, recent polls show Harris leading by 2.8 points over Trump.

Polling data indicates Harris is ahead in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump leads in Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Historical Track Record of Odds

Political betting records in the U.S. date back to 1868, with underdogs prevailing only twice since then. The first instance was in 1948 when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, followed by Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, who was heavily favored.