Published on: April 23, 2026, at 01:58h.
Updated on: April 23, 2026, at 01:58h.
- Gaming firm anticipates a year-over-year EBITDA boost of $15 million to $20 million for the Kentucky Derby.
- CEO Carstanjen predicts Derby Week 2026 will surpass the performances of the previous two years.
- CFO Dall expresses confidence in the projected growth.
Shares of Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) surged on Thursday following the company’s impressive first-quarter results showcasing record revenue and substantial earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). The forthcoming Kentucky Derby is expected to act as a significant catalyst for this stock resurgence.
The stock’s jump on Thursday adds to a recent rally that has seen shares increase by 12% in the past month, coinciding perfectly with Kentucky Derby Week kicking off on Saturday. Traditionally, the wagering during Derby Week, including bets on the Run for the Roses, sets new records, with EBITDA following a parallel trend. During a conference call with analysts today, CFO Marcia Dall reaffirmed her optimism regarding this year’s expected Derby EBITDA increase.
“We are very confident in projecting an EBITDA growth of $15 million to $20 million compared to last year,” she stated during the call. “This represents a notable increase even over Derby 150, which was the 2024 running of the race.”
This year’s Derby Week events may receive added visibility as the Kentucky Oaks, a premier race for three-year-old fillies, is set to be aired the day before the Derby on NBC and Peacock.
Early Stages of Kentucky Derby Expansion
The Kentucky Derby is not just the initial leg of the Triple Crown; it stands as the longest continuously held sporting event in American history, attracting substantial attention from bettors and investors.
In the past year, Churchill Downs revealed significant investments in new facilities at its renowned Kentucky track, focusing on upgrades to the Conservatory and the Skye Terrace. A budget of $280 million to $300 million for the Victory Run project is expected to introduce new temporary seating for Derby Week activities.
This initiative is set for completion before the 2028 Derby, emphasizing Churchill Downs’ commitment to strategic spending to ensure the event remains a long-term growth engine for both revenue and profit.
“We remain dedicated to enhancing the Derby experience. This year, we are launching several exciting improvements,” noted CEO Bill Carstanjen during the call. “We have completed renovations on The Mansion, a high-end hospitality venue offering excellent views of the track and finish line. Our Finish Line Suites have also undergone significant upgrades, ensuring a more integrated, high-energy hospitality experience with superior amenities. These are among our most exclusive offerings, and we are eager to present this transformed experience to our guests.”
Preakness Acquisition Updates
On Tuesday, Churchill Downs disclosed an $85 million deal to acquire the intellectual property rights related to the Preakness Stakes and associated races, thereby securing control over two legs of the Triple Crown.
This acquisition is still in the initial phases and has yet to be finalized. At present, it appears beneficial from a fee generation perspective for Churchill Downs, with potential for more significant implications in the future.
“We estimate that CHDN could generate around $6 million annually based on approximately $3 million for its IP rights and 2% of the total wagers placed. We believe this represents a long-term strategy, with the possibility of CHDN eventually managing operations,” stated Barry Jonas, an analyst at Truist Securities, in a note to his clients.