Conor McGregor steps back into the Octagon at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tomorrow night (July 11) for his UFC 329 welterweight clash against Max Holloway. This fight marks his return after a five-year hiatus, with betting odds shifting significantly in his favor since the announcement on May 16.

Initially, when the match was announced, Caesars Sportsbook had McGregor listed at +300 while Holloway opened at -400. However, by this morning (July 10), the odds have tightened considerably, with Holloway now at -220 and McGregor at +180 ahead of the 9 p.m. ET main card.

McGregor’s Odds Stabilize

At DraftKings, the odds reflect a similar trend: McGregor sits at +185, while Holloway stands at -225.

It has been five years since McGregor last fought, a match he lost to Dustin Poirier via first-round TKO in their trilogy bout. That fight left a memorable image of McGregor, injured and leaning against the Octagon fence.

What accounts for this shift in the betting line? Is it smart money favoring McGregor despite his long absence, or is it simply a matter of public enthusiasm for one of MMA’s most famous fighters?

The Lengthy Absence Concerns

“The betting action has been heavily skewed towards McGregor and we anticipate it will continue,” stated Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings based in Las Vegas.

“He started at +250 and has been moved to +185, with over 70% of the betting volume supporting him. This is largely due to his extensive fan base and name recognition. If this trend continues, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his odds shrink to around +150 before the fight night.”

Holloway has remained active in the octagon, facing top-tier competition. His most recent bout in March ended in a unanimous decision loss to Charles Oliveira, but he won his previous fight against Dustin Poirier by unanimous decision on July 19, 2025.

Public Support versus Sharp Money

The critical question for bettors is whether McGregor’s early fight explosiveness compensates for genuine concerns regarding his rustiness, stamina, and timing in the ring.

“Method-of-victory and prop bets may offer valuable opportunities,” advised Brandon Yaeger, the Combat Sports Lead Trader at Caesars Sportsbook.

As of this morning (July 10), McGregor to win by KO/TKO or DQ was listed at +220 at Caesars, compared to Holloway’s -125. McGregor winning by decision stands at +1000, while Holloway’s decision win is +500.

Props Showing Potential Value

Yaeger noted that among straight bets, 73% of tickets favor McGregor.

“We’ve recorded significant wagers on Holloway, including one notable bet of $50K and a handful of others between $10-20K. On McGregor, the largest single bet we’ve seen so far is $13K at +180 odds,” he added.

Additional fights featured on the main card for UFC 329 (odds from Caesars):

• Benoit Saint Denis (-150) versus Paddy Pimblett (+125) in a lightweight matchup
• Cory Sandhagen (-130) up against Mario Bautista (+110) in a bantamweight contest
• Brandon Royval (+180) faces Lone’er Kavanagh (-220) in a flyweight battle
• King Green (+105) takes on Terrance McKinney (-125) in another lightweight clash.

“In terms of interest, McGregor versus Holloway matches the excitement of the Khamzat Chimaev/Sean Strickland fight [UFC 328] and Ilia Topuria/Justin Gaethje encounter [UFC Freedom 250],” outlined Yaeger.

“Though it’s a bit challenging to compare directly due to the differing odds, I expect by the time McGregor steps into the Octagon, there will be a significant buzz surrounding this matchup.”