Published on: January 13, 2025, 12:16h.
Last updated on: January 13, 2025, 12:18h.
Donald Trump Jr., son of President-elect Donald Trump, has joined Kalshi in an advisory capacity.
Kalshi is a regulated peer-to-peer betting exchange that allows users to bet on various events, including elections and weather forecasts.
Kalshi, along with offshore sportsbooks, had predicted a victory for Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Despite polls suggesting a close race, Kalshi users gave Trump a nearly 60% chance of winning.
Trump Jr. highlights Kalshi’s predictive capabilities as a reason for joining the company as an advisor.
On Election night at Mar-a-Lago, while biased outlets called the race a coin toss, my family and close friends used the prediction market Kalshi to know we won hours ahead of the fake news media,” Trump Jr. said. “I immediately knew I had to contribute to their mission. Today, I am proud to announce that I am joining Kalshi as a strategic adviser.
Kalshi was established in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, who obtained a license from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate derivative contract markets in November 2020. The platform launched in July 2021.
Regulatory Footing
Despite CFTC approval for certain markets, such as predicting the price of Bitcoin, the agency has historically opposed election betting. In October 2022, the CFTC ordered Kalshi to remove its political markets.
Kalshi challenged the CFTC’s directive ahead of the 2024 election and obtained a court ruling in its favor. With a potential shift in regulatory stance under a Trump administration, Kalshi’s election markets may see continued operation.
Offshore Opponent
The addition of Trump Jr. to Kalshi’s team suggests a possible investigation into Polymarket, a competitor that faced regulatory action for unauthorized operations in 2022. Polymarket enlisted former CFTC Chair Christopher Giancarlo as an advisor.
In January 2022, the CFTC fined Polymarket $1.4 million for breaching regulations and restricted U.S. user access. Giancarlo, known as the “Crypto Dad,” previously led the CFTC during the early Trump administration.