Published on: January 16, 2026, 11:56h.
Updated on: January 16, 2026, 11:56h.
- NFL hold percentages rebounded in November and December.
- An analyst believes that this is not mirrored in currently available forecasts.
- Prediction markets are less competitive compared to traditional sportsbooks.
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG), the leading sportsbook operators in the United States, are positioned to exceed fourth-quarter earnings expectations as NFL hold rates significantly improved in the final two months of the quarter.
This perspective comes from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon, who, in a recent report to clients, states that when these gaming enterprises provided their forecasts for the last quarter of 2025, Flutter’s implied hold rate was 11%, while DraftKings was at 8.5%. Beynon notes that the surge in NFL hold during November and December sets a positive tone for both DraftKings and the owner of FanDuel.
“In the final two months of Q4, FLUT/DKNG recorded hold rates of 14% and 10%, resulting in Q4 holds of 12% and 9%—an increase of 119 and 66 basis points compared to our estimated implied hold from prior guidance,” the analyst elaborates.
Beynon further indicates that an improved hold forecast could yield an EBITDA increase between $100 million to $200 million for Flutter and $50 million to $100 million for DraftKings.
Importance of Enhanced Hold Estimates for DraftKings and Flutter
Last year, DraftKings and Flutter faced downturns as they downgraded their quarterly and yearly forecasts following another series of favorable outcomes from NFL games, underlining the significance of improved football hold for these firms and their investors.
“The low NFL hold at the onset of the season has undoubtedly influenced stock performance more than it should have,” Beynon asserts. “At the lows of Q4, DKNG was nearly 40% below its August high when the consensus estimate for Q4 EBITDA was about 40% higher.” He notes that NFL hold rates surged impressively in November and December, while online stocks also climbed, albeit at more modest rates.
The analyst emphasizes that current consensus projections fail to accurately capture the hold improvements seen in November and December, suggesting that when these operators make their reports official, it may propel their stock prices higher.
DraftKings is anticipated to release its fourth-quarter results on February 12, with Flutter following on February 26.
Prediction Markets Are Not the Problem
Initially, the decline in stocks for both gaming companies in 2025 was attributed to the emergence of prediction markets, but this explanation has been dismissed. Beynon reaffirms that event contract providers present less of a competitive challenge to regulated sportsbooks than some investors have speculated.
“We maintain the belief that prediction sports products cannot compete with online sports betting, and a majority of their volume comes from non-legal betting states, thereby creating additional EBITDA opportunities for DKNG and FLUT,” Beynon remarks.
This viewpoint is reinforced by the pricing issues faced by prediction markets on sports event contracts, with evidence indicating they have captured only a mere 5% of the legal sportsbook market share.