Published on: September 17, 2025, 12:23h.
Updated on: September 17, 2025, 12:23h.
- DraftKings Q3 EBITDA may struggle due to sluggish NFL start
- Positive signals from the operator’s parlay offerings and structural hold
With just two weeks into the 2025 NFL season, it’s clear that DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and its competitors are experiencing a familiar situation from last year: favorable outcomes for customers. The current climate is concerning enough that analysts predict the operator’s third-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) could be lower than expected.
In a recent report, Citizens Equity Research Analyst Jordan Bender indicated that just two weeks into the NFL season, DraftKings is “tracking below” the expected third-quarter EBITDA forecast of $51 million—with only two weekends left before the quarter concludes. A notable factor in this analysis is the week one matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
“The Week 1 Sunday Night Football (Bills vs. Ravens) was the company’s poorest game outcome ever, with player props performing well and bettors gravitating towards the Bills moneyline, especially when the team was down by 15 points (ultimately winning),” observes Bender.
Aside from this result, DraftKings’ performance during the opening weeks of NFL games has otherwise aligned with the company’s expectations, according to Bender.
Positive Aspects for DraftKings
Online sportsbook operators faced a series of player-friendly NFL results late last year and into the first quarter, creating optimism for a potential shift back to normalcy this year. Although that hasn’t substantially occurred thus far, there is still ample time for change, and DraftKings has several positive attributes to consider.
Among these are a robust parlay mix and a structural hold that exceeds expectations. After discussions with DraftKings executives, including co-founder and CEO Jason Robins, Bender highlighted that the insights regarding parlays and structural hold “indicate strong prospects for the core business.”
“Across various revenue streams, Mr. Robins reports that player engagement, retention, acquisition, in-play offerings, and promotional expenditures are either meeting or surpassing initial expectations as the season kicks off,” adds the analyst.
Bender also indicates that specific game outcomes and pricing fluctuations on certain bets for NFL primetime slots are prevalent investor concerns. However, he reassures that DraftKings maintains competitive pricing, suggesting that these worries are not isolated to the company.
Insights on Prediction Markets
As expected, prediction markets became a focal point in Bender’s dialogue with DraftKings executives, where he remarked that “there was nothing significant to report” regarding the operator’s potential entry into that sector.
He speculated that should DraftKings venture into prediction markets, it likely won’t mirror the approach being taken by competitor Flutter Entertainment with CME Group and that their possible yes/no exchange could be limited to states where sports betting is not permitted, potentially ceasing operations once such areas authorize sports wagering.
This includes states like California, Texas, and Georgia; however, California may be excluded since tribal casino operators generally oppose prediction markets. Good relationships with California tribes are crucial for DraftKings and others aiming to expand sports betting there.