Publication Date: November 13, 2024, 08:14h.
Last Updated: November 13, 2024, 08:14h.
Polymarket’s CEO Shayne Coplan’s Manhattan residence was raided by the FBI shortly after the platform successfully predicted the outcome of the US presidential election, surpassing conventional polls.
A spokesperson for the company confirmed to Business Insider that the 26-year-old CEO’s home was targeted on Wednesday morning, with the FBI seizing Coplan’s phone and electronic devices, as reported by The New York Post and Axios.
Coplan reportedly has not been arrested. Following the raid, he humorously posted on X: “new phone, who dis?”
Allegations of ‘Political Retribution’
While a Polymarket spokesperson suggested that the raid was an act of “political retribution” for their accurate election predictions, it is more likely that the FBI is investigating the participation of US citizens on the platform in election speculation.
Polymarket is an unregulated financial exchange and prediction platform claiming to block US citizens. However, US users may potentially bypass this restriction using a VPN to conceal their location.
The platform is estimated to have processed $3.2 billion in cryptocurrency globally from election speculation.
The extent to which Polymarket accepts “bets” from US citizens, if any, remains unclear. However, their claim of accurately predicting the election hinges on having a substantial sample size of registered US voters.
The platform offers events contracts, a form of derivative that enables users to predict the outcome of specific events such as the Best Picture at the Oscars or the next president. Traders wager on “yes” or “no” outcomes, and the contracts conclude upon the event’s conclusion.
Only one platform, Kalshi, legally offers this service in the US, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Influence on Elections?
Prior to the election, the CFTC attempted to prevent Kalshi from offering events contracts on the next president, citing illegal election betting in the US and concerns that the platform could manipulate election results.
Significant bets on a single candidate can skew the markets and potentially allow wealthy individuals or entities to influence public perception of a candidate’s chances to boost campaign morale and turnout.
It is rumored that an unknown trader unsuccessfully tried to manipulate the 2012 presidential race by heavily betting on Mitt Romney.
During this election cycle, a Polymarket trader known as the “Trump Whale” reportedly earned $85 million by supporting the former and future US president.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on election eve, the anonymous trader denied having any political motives and claimed to have conducted personal polls revealing overstated support for Kamala Harris.
The FBI is likely investigating the trader’s claim of political neutrality.