Published on: December 29, 2024, 11:17h.
Last updated on: December 29, 2024, 11:17h.
One of the casualties of the ongoing storm in Canadian national politics is a proposed new national gambling advertising bill.
There is a legislative logjam in the Canadian House of Commons. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is currently away skiing, with a recent viral video showing a voter confronting him in a ski hill parking lot. This incident, complete with inappropriate language, is circulating on social media.
National Gambling Ad Bill
Bill S-269, introduced by Canadian Senator Marty Deacon, mandates the Minister of Heritage Pascal St-Onge to create new national standards for gaming advertising. These standards would regulate the content, timing, and frequency of gambling ads.
The Minister would engage in discussions with provincial legislators, Indigenous groups, and gaming regulators to establish the new guidelines.
Liberals Way Down in the Polls
The surge in gambling advertising following the launch of the Ontario market has raised concerns. Market entrants were seeking a competitive advantage.
However, the House of Commons has been stuck in a debate over access to unredacted documents, delaying progress.
Both the Conservatives and the minority Liberal government have been embroiled in this debate, blaming each other and prioritizing it over other House business.
Bill S-269 received Senate approval earlier this month and is awaiting its First Reading in the House of Commons as the initial step towards obtaining royal assent and becoming law.
The House has adjourned for the Christmas break until Jan. 27. So, will the bill be introduced and enacted before the next election? That remains uncertain.
Controversial O’Leary Comments
The current speculation in Canada revolves around whether the deeply unpopular Trudeau will resign or continue until the next scheduled national election on Oct. 20, 2025. His Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned just before Christmas, partly in response to escalating tariff threats from the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump has been ridiculing Trudeau online, suggesting that Canada should become the 51st state of the U.S. and that Trudeau would make a great governor. Conservative commentator Kevin O’Leary even claimed that half of Canadians would consider exploring this option (although this goes against polls).
Trudeau Immensely Unpopular
Trudeau’s approval ratings in Canada are at an all-time low, currently standing at just 28%.
The Liberals are currently ruling with a minority government and have struck a deal with the Leftist New Democrat Party. However, the threat of a non-confidence vote looms over them. The NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, has not committed to bringing down the Liberals.
Betting Markets React
The cryptocurrency prediction markets are abuzz with this development. Here are some current predictions from Polymarket:
- Will Canada become the 51st state of the U.S. before July? (4% chance, $198,907 volume)
- Will an election be called in Canada before April? (76% chance, $78,010 volume)
- Will a vote of no confidence pass against Trudeau in 2024? (1% chance, $301,149 volume)
Additionally, Kalshi offers these predictions:
- Will Trump impose new tariffs on Canada before 2026? (65% chance, $4,794 volume)
- Will there be a successful vote of no confidence in Canada this year? (2% chance, $46,105 volume)
- Next government of Canada? (96% chance of a Conservative majority, $1,231 volume)
- Who will be the Canadian Prime Minister after the next election? (91% chance it will be Pierre Poilievre, $34,567 volume)
As the holiday season transitions into the New Year and winter sets in, the Canadian political landscape remains heated with no signs of cooling down.