Published on: December 12, 2025, 01:20h.
Updated on: December 12, 2025, 01:21h.
- Estimates suggest that contracts related to sports events represent 75% to 80% of total volume in prediction markets.
- Some experts believe this figure could be even higher.
- However, research indicates that this percentage may decrease in the future.
While they assert a lack of involvement in sports betting, prediction markets are closely intertwined with this betting form due to the substantial volume generated by sports event contracts. This reality highlights the importance of exploring alternative avenues for growth.
According to the report titled “U.S. Prediction Markets: How Big, How Fast, What’s Next?” from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG), sports event contracts are projected to represent approximately 44% of the turnover on major prediction markets in the U.S. over the long haul.
This marks a notable decline from the current 75-80% trading volume attributed to sports, as growth in sectors like finance, cryptocurrency, politics, news, and culture/entertainment emerges,” the research firm asserts.
Contracts associated with popular sports such as football and basketball are highly sought after on prediction platforms like Kalshi, which continue to expand their sports offerings rather than limit them.
Importance of Non-Sports Growth for Prediction Markets
Though platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket became widely recognized ahead of the 2024 presidential election, it was their developments in sports event contracts that drove growth, faced legal challenges, and attracted regulatory attention.
While EKG estimates that 75% to 80% of the volume in prediction markets originates from sports contracts, this proportion can peak during specific weeks. For instance, in the week of Nov. 23-29, 17 out of the top 20 most actively traded contracts on Kalshi were related to sports, with roughly $604 million exchanged in NFL and college football games.
This indicates that a decline in the percentage of sports’ contribution to yes/no exchanges over time likely results from expansion in other market segments, rather than a downturn in sports activity. Platforms like Kalshi must prioritize this growth as sports contracts are major points of focus for regulators scrutinizing prediction markets.
EKG foresees sports retaining their status as the primary category in prediction markets at around 44%, followed by cryptocurrency-related derivatives at 31% and news at 16%. The firm also emphasizes that expanding beyond sports is crucial for companies like Kalshi and Polymarket to validate their significant valuations from investors.
Strategies for Driving Non-Sports Growth in Prediction Markets
Finance serves as a promising area for prediction markets looking to diversify away from sports, including cryptocurrency and other sectors. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have recognized this opportunity; the former recently partnered with Google Finance, while the latter has forged an arrangement with Yahoo Finance.
Moreover, players in the event contract space can collaborate with brokerage firms, tapping into a customer base enthusiastic about crypto and often comprised of active sports bettors. Enhancing cultural visibility — something Kalshi’s partnership with CNN aims to achieve — can also contribute to non-sports growth.
“Increased cultural awareness as specific markets gain more exposure in media cycles (e.g., political discussions on the CNN ticker) or discussions about music album sales on social media,” concludes EKG.