Published on: October 30, 2025, 01:36h.
Updated on: October 30, 2025, 01:42h.
- Recent declines in stock performance may correlate with prediction markets, but the narrative runs deeper
- Analyst views Genius’ NFL collaboration as beneficial amid growing prediction market opportunities
Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) shares have decreased by 4.26% in the past month. While this drop isn’t as severe as those faced by sportsbook clients, it indicates that investors are responding to the surge in prediction market volumes. An analyst suggests there’s potential for Genius in the event contracts domain.
In a recent client report, B. Riley analyst Josh Nichols posits that data providers like Genius could capitalize on the prediction markets’ popularity, notably in California and Texas—states where sports betting remains illegal. As these are the two most populated states, their total addressable market (TAM) might not yet be included in Wall Street’s projections for Genius, according to Nichols.
Management has suggested that current licensing frameworks for prediction market operators will likely be incremental; however, the strategic implications extend beyond mere prediction platforms,” remarks the B. Riley analyst.
Nichols maintained a “buy” rating with a $14 price target for Genius, indicating a potential upside of around 23% from current prices.
How Sportsbooks’ Push in PM Could Benefit Genius Sports
While diversifying through advertising and artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives—both anticipated to drive long-term growth—Genius primarily generates revenue via data provided to sportsbook accounts.
The emergence of prediction markets is not necessarily detrimental to this revenue channel, as established sportsbooks are venturing into event contracts. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) recently acquired Railbird Exchange, and FanDuel secured a partnership with CME Group (NASDAQ: CME). Other clients of Genius are, at the very least, observing developments within the event contracts segment.
“Traditional sportsbook operators are actively entering the prediction market space, creating numerous avenues for data monetization through federally regulated products,” adds Nichols.
The analyst also highlights that recent agreements between the NHL and major prediction market players, Kalshi and Polymarket, might open pathways for new data partnerships beyond the existing arrangements with sportsbooks. This could benefit firms like Genius and Sportradar (NASDAQ: SRAD).
Genius’ NFL Ties Could Provide Additional Support
As football season approaches, Kalshi’s volumes are soaring, with estimates indicating that 90% of its trading is linked to sports event contracts, most of which involve NFL games.
Kalshi has recently expanded its NFL offerings to include parlays and additional contracts. This could be advantageous for Genius in the long run, as parlays—especially same-game wagers—are data-heavy, and Genius possesses exclusive data rights with the NFL. The league stands as the data provider’s largest non-institutional shareholder.
“GENI’s strategic positioning is uniquely favorable due to its exclusive NFL data partnership and equity stake alignment, facilitating real-time data for parlays and in-game betting, which constitute an increasing portion of betting activity,” concludes Nichols.