Published on: November 20, 2025, 10:25 AM.
Updated on: November 20, 2025, 10:48 AM.
- Stock performance affected by sportsbook hold and prediction market worries
- Analysts claim Genius is being misjudged
- Anticipated investor day may trigger share price recovery
Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) may be a classic case of a valuable entity suffering from misguided panic. As shares of its sportsbook partners have declined sharply, Genius’s stock has also faced significant losses; however, one analyst suggests this reaction is disproportionate.
Concerns about weak sportsbook performance and prediction markets have negatively impacted companies like DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT), creating additional downward pressure on Genius’s shares, which have fallen by 22.59% in the past month. Analyst Josh Nichols of B. Riley describes the selling as “indiscriminate” and believes Genius’s stock is due for recovery.
The market is mistakenly categorizing GENI as a transaction-driven sportsbook proxy, when in reality, it is a technology and data platform provider with recurring revenue, minimal exposure to betting outcomes, and exclusive content agreements running through 2029/2030,” the analyst notes.
He has assigned a “buy” rating to Genius stock with a price target of $14, indicating an upside potential of over 55% from its current valuation.
Prediction Markets: Potential Boost for Genius Sports
The recent downturn in sports betting stocks and data providers like Genius has coincided with reports of increased activity in prediction markets such as Kalshi.
This trend signals investor anxiety that event contract providers may capture market share from traditional sportsbooks; however, Nichols reiterates that the evolving prediction markets space could present more opportunities than obstacles for businesses like Genius.
“As this segment grows, the demand for official league data, branding, and integrity solutions will amplify, positioning GENI favorably due to its exclusive rights portfolio,” the analyst adds. “This is particularly relevant for in-game and parlay betting, which constitute an increasing portion of betting activity in the U.S. and are not well-addressed by prediction markets.”
There have been ongoing discussions about the limitations of parlay options on platforms like Kalshi compared to DraftKings and FanDuel. This is an area where Genius could capitalize, as the company already supplies the necessary data for multileg bets, including popular same-game options.
Investor Day: A Turning Point for Genius Sports Stock
Nichols highlights that Genius’s forthcoming investor day, set for December 3, could serve as a key turning point for the undervalued stock.
We are optimistic ahead of the December 3 analyst day in New York City, anticipating management’s presentation of a long-term strategy aimed at achieving over $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027/2028, alongside improving EBITDA margins towards the company’s target of 30%+, reinforcing GENI’s status as a less volatile technology platform with substantial competitive advantages,” the analyst states.
He further suggests that his revenue prediction of $758 million for 2026 may be conservative, especially considering upcoming catalysts like deals for European league rights, growth in Betvision, enhancements in Genius’s media division, and sustained bettor interest in same-game parlays.