Posted on: January 15, 2026, 02:20h.
Last updated on: January 15, 2026, 02:20h.
- CEO Solomon engaged with executives from two prominent prediction market firms.
- He describes prediction markets as “extremely fascinating.”
- Goldman Sachs has assembled a team to explore potential involvement in the sector.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), the premier investment bank on Wall Street, is actively investigating opportunities to penetrate the prediction markets sector—an area that CEO David Solomon refers to as “extremely fascinating.”
During the latest earnings call for the fourth quarter, Solomon informed analysts that he met with the management teams of “two major prediction market firms” to discuss how Goldman’s expertise could be leveraged within the realm of yes/no derivatives.
“I’ve personally engaged with the leadership of two major prediction companies over the past two weeks and dedicated a couple of hours to each discussion to delve deeper into this area,” Solomon shared when responding to a query from Wolfe Research analyst Steven Chubak. “We have a dedicated team looking into this opportunity.”
Since assuming the role of CEO in 2018, Solomon has refrained from naming the prediction market firms involved in discussions. He did not address the issue of sports derivatives, which form a major portion of trading volume within prediction markets and have recently attracted a considerable amount of legal and regulatory scrutiny.
Goldman’s Skills Applicable to Prediction Markets
Goldman Sachs operates some of the largest, most dynamic trading desks globally, boasting advanced teams of traders focused on diverse asset classes, including commodities and derivatives. This investment bank possesses the necessary competencies and technological resources to establish a significant presence in the prediction markets sector.
The institution also holds essential regulatory approvals, such as Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) authority, facilitating a seamless entry into the prediction markets realm without the need for acquisitions. Gaining FCM status is important for operating regulated prediction markets and is issued by the National Futures Association (NFA).
Goldman is well-acquainted with the commodities market and interacts with key regulators, including the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the regulation of prediction markets domestically.
“When you consider these activities, particularly those subject to CFTC regulation, they resemble derivative contract activities. I can clearly foresee opportunities for our business to intersect here,” Solomon elaborated during the call.
Prediction Markets and Wall Street’s Evolving Relationship
The yes/no derivatives market, though relatively immature, is increasingly engaging with traditional finance. For instance, Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket last year.
Moreover, a number of brokerage firms are making their entrance into this space, while established market makers serving Wall Street clients are becoming primary liquidity providers on platforms like Kalshi. Many experts predict an expanding array of use cases within prediction markets for hedge funds and institutional investors, particularly for trading around specific economic indicators or as a means to hedge traditional positions. Solomon, for his part, maintains a practical outlook on prediction markets.
“I believe there is ample cause for excitement around these developments, though the speed of transformation may not align with what some analysts are suggesting,” remarked the Goldman CEO during the conference call. “Nonetheless, I find them to be significant and authentic, and we are investing considerable effort into understanding them.”