Google has announced that it will start allowing advertisements from operators of prediction markets later this month. However, there are specific guidelines that advertisers must adhere to in order to secure a spot.
For prediction market operators looking to promote on Google within the US, completion of the certification process and compliance with federal commodities regulatory registration standards will be necessary under a new policy that takes effect on January 21, 2026.
According to the revised advertising policies, Google will allow ads for only those event contracts that are exchange-listed and provided by federally regulated entities. This policy is exclusively applicable in the US and restricts eligibility to platforms sanctioned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or brokerages registered with the National Futures Association (NFA), which grant access to approved Designated Contract Markets.
“On January 21, 2026, Google will update its advertising policies to allow for Prediction Markets (defined as platforms enabling the listing of or providing customer access to Exchange-Listed Event Contracts concerning economics, sports, or current events) in the United States, but exclusively for federally regulated entities,” the company stated.
Licensing and Certification Specifications
To be eligible, companies must either be licensed by the CFTC as DCMs, which are authorized to offer exchange-listed derivatives like yes/no event contracts, or be registered with the NFA to provide third-party access to products offered by an eligible DCM.
All potential advertisers must also complete Google’s internal certification process. The company emphasizes that “All ads, products, and landing pages must comply with local laws, financial regulations, industry standards, and all other Google Ads Policies.”
Exclusion of Binary Options
The updated policy continues to prohibit all forms of binary options advertising. This ban encompasses offshore exchanges, affiliated educational websites, signal providers, and brokerage review websites. Google articulated that the differentiation between prediction markets and binary options is fundamentally driven by consumer protection issues, citing the ties of binary options to misleading advertising, systemic abuse, and potential financial loss.
Prediction markets that comply with federal licensing regulations will be classified as supervised financial instruments under Google’s Financial Services advertising regulations, not as retail products eligible for unrestricted promotion.
Market Consequences
By linking advertising access to federal oversight, Google associates visibility on its platform with regulatory compliance. Companies that achieve CFTC approval or NFA registration will gain access to one of the most widely utilized digital advertising platforms in the US, while those without regulation will remain blocked from access.
Key players in the US prediction markets include CFTC-regulated platforms and brokerages such as Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, and Robinhood.
Google’s advertising eligibility holds significant commercial importance due to the platform’s extensive reach. Estimates suggest that the search engine processes approximately 99,000 requests per second, translating to around 8.5 billion queries each day, with some estimates indicating even higher daily activity.