The American Gaming Association (AGA) predicts that NFL betting handle will stay relatively unchanged this season, as prediction markets take a larger share of Americans’ betting dollars.
AGA estimates that Americans will bet $29.5 billion on the NFL through regulated sportsbooks this season, starting with the game between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks on Wednesday night (Sept. 9) at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA.
The AGA anticipates little growth from last season’s handle of $29.4 billion, with CEO Bill Miller citing prediction markets as the reason for the slowdown.
NFL Handle Growth Stalls
“We’re looking forward to the NFL season kickoff, along with millions of fans eager to support their favorite teams,” Miller said. “Following the Supreme Court’s decision to lift the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legal sports betting experienced significant growth.
“However, this year is different. With the rise of prediction markets, legal betting growth has slowed down.”
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Novig are expanding their sports offerings nationwide, which now account for the majority of their revenue.
Season Starts Sept. 9
Prediction markets and the regulated sportsbook industry are embroiled in a legal and regulatory battle over the classification of sports event contracts. The dispute is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
“We acknowledge their strong product offering,” said Dominic Hammond, Caesars Digital’s senior vice president of sports. “They’re investing heavily. Ultimately, we see their product as sports betting. If you can create a parlay, that’s sports betting, right? I don’t think there’s another name for it.”
Caesars Stays the Course
According to Hammond, prediction markets are not affecting Caesars’ approach to the new NFL season.
“Our strategy is based on listening to our customers and setting our internal goals,” he explained. “We can offer unique features like Flex parlays that can still pay out even if one or more selections lose. Our loyalty program, promotions, and other elements set us apart from prediction markets. While they are competition, they won’t change our strategy.”
Legal Battles Spread Nationwide
Legal, regulated gaming creates jobs and generates sports betting tax revenue. AGA estimates that prediction market platforms have diverted over $1.3 billion in potential state gaming taxes since 2025.
“These prediction market platforms may mislead consumers by portraying sports wagers as investments rather than entertainment,” noted Miller.
Novig, a sports event contracts-focused prediction market, launched on Aug. 4 and reported a daily contract volume averaging 23.3 million over seven days through Aug. 23, surpassing other market operators like Rothera (18.0 million) and Underdog (16.0 million).