Published on: January 17, 2026, at 10:07 AM.
Updated on: January 17, 2026, at 10:07 AM.
- Buffalo Bills enter as slight betting underdogs against the Denver Broncos
- DT Ed Oliver makes his return to action for the Bills
- Seattle Seahawks favored at home against an injury-stricken San Francisco 49ers
This weekend features four exciting NFL Divisional Round matchups, starting today, in what has been a season rich in parity, complicating prediction efforts. This insight comes from Ethan Useloff, a Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook. The Buffalo Bills kick off the Divisional games against the Denver Broncos today at 4:30 PM EST.
“This season has truly demonstrated significant parity within the NFL, varying from week to week,” Useloff remarked. “For instance, even one of the Super Bowl favorites, the New England Patriots, experienced a loss in Week 1 to the Las Vegas Raiders (20-13), a team holding the No. 1 draft pick this spring, which highlights this parity. It underscores how the reverse draft order in the NFL assists struggling teams to improve. Unlike many other leagues, we’re seeing fewer teams stuck in mediocrity.”
Remarkable Parity
This trend contributes greatly to the league’s competitiveness. Adjustments to rules, such as overtime and kickoff regulations, have played a role, but there is also a marked improvement in athlete quality over the last decade. Defensive strategies have evolved as well; we’ve seen fewer quarterbacks surpassing 5,000 passing yards, with Matthew Stafford from the Rams leading the league this season at 4,707 yards.
Useloff describes this season as “incredibly gripping,” which also complicates his role as a trader.
“You can have a favored team lose by a significant margin,” he noted. “However, this unpredictability enhances the in-game betting experience and the overall excitement surrounding each game, making our roles more enjoyable since fans are eager to place bets. We’re also offering more promotions than ever.”
Commitment to Fair Play
At Fanatics, their Fair Play policy ensures that single-player prop bets are refunded when a player is injured in the first half. They also safeguard parlays by voiding affected legs and recalibrating odds. This past season, Fanatics returned $17 million to players through their refund initiative, protecting over a million bets, including single-player props and parlay legs that were voided to keep wagers alive.
This policy was notably active during Wild Card Weekend when 49ers tight end George Kittle suffered a torn right Achilles in the second quarter of his team’s victory against the Eagles.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos, Today at 4:30 PM EST
The key storyline for the Bills revolves around their injury-riddled wide receiving corps – Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer, and Tyrell Shavers are all sidelined. Instead, WR Brandin Cooks will likely be the focus, having recorded seven receptions for 159 yards recently.
Additionally, the Bills have activated DT Ed Oliver from injured reserve, a significant boost. In the three games he participated in this season, Oliver made three sacks but has been out since October due to a left biceps injury. WR Curtis Samuel will also be making a return for today’s matchup.
On the other side, the Bills feature quarterback Josh Allen, who is viewed as a potential NFL MVP, although he’s currently dealing with some injuries. ESPN reports that he fully practiced on Wednesday and Thursday, even after being in the concussion protocol during the Wild Card victory in Jacksonville, along with foot and finger issues.
“Allen’s skillset is notably more distinct than his peers,” Useloff stated. However, he highlighted that there’s a significant variance in the point spread the Bills would face if their backup QB needed to enter the game.
“If Mitch Trubisky steps in, that would likely result in a touchdown swing,” he explained. “Allen is the driving force of the team, and without him, their chances significantly diminish.”
Stout Broncos Defense
“This matchup features a team heavily reliant on its quarterback, which is epitomized by the Buffalo Bills,” Useloff detailed. “Their success largely hinges on Allen’s performance against a home team led by a less seasoned QB (Bo Nix) and a superior defensive unit.”
“It’s a classic illustration of quarterback importance. On the Bills’ side, running back James Cook has been stellar this season, leading the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards. However, given the mounting injuries to the wide receivers, the Bills may face challenges in executing their deep pass plays. This will elevate the significance of the rushing game and the physicality of Allen against a strong Denver defense.”
Useloff anticipates the Bills will capitalize on their ground game, despite going against a solid defensive front that ranks second in rushing yards allowed per game at 91.
“For the Bills to claim victory, a heavy emphasis on time of possession, red zone efficiency, and third-down conversions will be crucial,” he stated.
Current Betting Odds for Today’s Games
At DraftKings: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-112), Broncos -1.5 (-108); Over 45.5 (-112), Under 45.5 (-108).
At FanDuel: ML Bills +100, Broncos -118; Spread Bills +1.5 (-118), Broncos -1.5 (-104); Over 46.5 (-102), Under 46.5 (-120).
And at BetMGM: ML Bills +100, Broncos -120; Spread Bills +1.5 (-105), Broncos -1.5 (-105); Over 46 (-110), Under 46 (-110).
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks, Today at 8:00 PM EST
A few days ago, we discussed Seahawks QB Sam Darnold and his ongoing oblique injury. He remains questionable, although he mentioned earlier this week his intention to play. These two teams recently clashed in Week 18, with the Seahawks holding the 49ers to a mere 173 total yards, resulting in a 13-3 victory.
The Seahawks are considerable favorites at home. Useloff noted that the nearest spreads are found in the AFC, expressing his confidence in the Bills as underdogs as well as the 49ers.
“I understand they have significant injuries with Kittle out, and Ricky Pearsall didn’t play last week (currently listed as questionable for today),” he stated. “However, covering a seven-point spread in the playoffs is challenging against a Kyle Shanahan-coached team, and Robert Saleh has arguably been the top defensive coordinator this season.”
“It’s difficult to envision the Niners losing by a large margin in this matchup. Yes, it’s in Seattle for a night game with numerous injuries, but a seven-point gap is substantial in the playoffs, particularly given that team’s resilience and championship experience.”
Current Betting Lines
At DraftKings: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -345; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45.5 (-102), Under 45.5 (-118).
At FanDuel: ML 49ers +275, Seahawks -340; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 44.5 (-120), Under 44.5 (-102).
And at BetMGM: ML 49ers +265, Seahawks -333; Spread 49ers +7 (-105), Seahawks -7 (-115); Over 45 (-102), Under 45 (-110).
Unpredictable Prop Bets
With the Bills’ wide receiver corps heavily impacted by injuries, they will need to lean more on tight ends like Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, finding innovative ways to engage their skill players, including increased involvement from their running backs in the passing game. Bills’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be under major scrutiny.
Among the most popular prop bets at BetMGM this morning include Bills WR Khalil Shakir Over 5.5 Receptions Made (-145) and Cooks Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-115). Similarly, at theScore Bet, Shakir’s 30+ Total Receiving Yards has emerged as a leading non-TD player prop based on overall wagers.