Published on: February 19, 2026, 11:30h.
Updated on: February 19, 2026, 11:30h.
- Tradeweb is investing in Kalshi
- The companies aim to develop “an institutional-focused platform for event contracts”
- This collaboration could enhance Kalshi’s presence with institutional investors
Tradeweb Markets (NASDAQ: TW), known for its electronic trading platforms across a range of financial products, has announced a strategic alliance with Kalshi, aimed at enhancing the visibility of the prediction market operator among institutional market players.
This collaboration will unfold in two phases. Initially, Kalshi’s predictions and market data will be seamlessly integrated into Tradeweb’s credit and interest rates platforms, which collectively handle an impressive daily trading volume of $2.6 trillion across credit, equities, interest rates, and money markets.
(In the second phase) we will develop trading functionality for prediction markets on Tradeweb, leveraging Kalshi’s markets,” stated Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder and CEO, in a post on X. “With Tradeweb facilitating trades on government bonds, interest rate swaps, credit products, mortgage-backed securities, money markets, and ETFs, you’ll soon be able to incorporate prediction markets into your investment portfolio—managing everything from a single platform.”
Tradeweb is also acquiring a minority stake in Kalshi, although the details regarding the investment’s size and terms have not been disclosed. Following a successful $1 billion funding round late last year, Kalshi achieved a valuation of $11 billion.
Strategic Timing for Kalshi and Tradeweb
The announcement of the Kalshi/Tradeweb collaboration came just one day after the Federal Reserve released a research paper highlighting the effectiveness of prediction markets, suggesting they may outperform other forecasting methods for macroeconomic data.
“We analyze Kalshi against more conventional survey and market-implied forecasts, assessing how expectations react to macroeconomic and financial shifts, and how policy signals are interpreted by market participants,” stated the Fed researchers. “Our findings indicate that Kalshi markets offer a high-frequency, continuously updated, and distributionally rich benchmark valuable to both scholars and policymakers.”
There is merit to these claims, as a report released in December by Kalshi’s newly established research division revealed that traders engaging in Consumer Price Index (CPI) prediction markets consistently deliver more accurate insights on consumer inflation than professional analysts on Wall Street. Kalshi and Tradeweb plan to utilize Kalshi’s strengths in macroeconomic and policy-focused event contracts.
“Leveraging Kalshi’s sophisticated prediction markets platform, this initiative aims to offer access to standardized event contracts related to macroeconomic releases, Fed policies, political elections, and other significant policy outcomes, with Tradeweb serving as the institutional entry point to this potential new marketplace,” according to the announcement.
Importance of the Collaboration
Although significant prediction market operators like Kalshi frequently announce partnerships, the collaboration with Tradeweb could be particularly pivotal. This comes at a juncture when sports event contracts reportedly constitute 85% to 90% of transactions on yes/no exchanges.
Industry analysts argue that to ensure the long-term growth of prediction markets, operators must seek expansion beyond the realm of sports. Some Wall Street stakeholders have expressed concerns that it would be unsatisfactory if the ultimate trajectory of prediction markets became a mere alternative to traditional sports betting.
The industry can sidestep this outcome by diversifying its applications, with professional investors potentially representing an untapped market for growth beyond sports.
“This partnership will provide Tradeweb’s corporate clientele with superior risk pricing and the capability to hedge against a variety of significant events: Is a recession imminent? Will there be a new wave of tariffs? What will be the election outcome? A Federal Reserve rate cut? Government shutdown? Hurricane impacts in Florida? New legislative measures?” adds Mansour.