Published on: February 10, 2026, 07:13h.
Updated on: February 11, 2026, 03:59h.
- Kalshi halts Cardi B halftime betting market after unclear Super Bowl presence
- Traders submit CFTC complaint claiming unfair, arbitrary settlement rules
- Situation reflects previous territorial disputes in geopolitical prediction markets
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s CEO, announced today that the prediction market surpassed $1 billion in trading on Super Bowl Sunday, marking a significant increase from the previous year. A substantial portion of this volume was seen in the non-game sectors, with over $100 million wagered on the halftime show’s opening performance alone.
However, traders who placed bets totaling $4.4 million on whether Cardi B would “perform” during the show weren’t sharing in Mansour’s excitement today. Some have lodged a formal complaint with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency overseeing Kalshi, claiming unfair settlement practices.
The issue arises from the fact that “Big Cardi” made an appearance during Bad Bunny’s halftime performance. She danced, lip-synced, and posed for the cameras in a manner that most would classify as “performing,” despite not being the main act on stage.
What Constitutes a Performance?
Unlike popular opinion, Kalshi’s policies stipulate that “dancing or being present on stage without vocalizing or using instruments” does not count as a performance, cameo, or anything similar.
Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana acknowledged to Business Insider that the situation was indeed vague. She recognized that the South Bronx rapper was “at the very least mouthing along while dancing,” but stated it was uncertain “whether she was singing,” concluding that it was “impossible to ascertain either way.”
Consequently, instead of making a definitive call, Kalshi paused the market and settled it at a weighted price.
In contrast, Polymarket was willing to recognize Cardi’s appearance and issued payouts, interpreting her spirited cameo as a legitimate “performance.”
To be fair, Kalshi didn’t increase its profit through this settlement decision as their model charges transaction fees on trades, instead of taking a cut from losing bets like traditional sportsbooks.
Nevertheless, the CFTC complaint criticizes the prediction platform for invoking a rule that granted it sole authority to settle contracts amid ambiguity not covered by its terms. This reportedly deprived traders of the gains tied to an accurate prediction and led to financial losses.
The complaint also asserts that Kalshi did not provide clear and objective standards for determining what qualifies as a “performance.”
What Counts as an Invasion?
Prediction markets like Polymarket also offered bets on the likelihood of a US invasion of Venezuela. After US forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, many bettors anticipated a “Yes” payout.
However, Polymarket decided that the operation did not align with the contractual definition of an invasion, leaving over $10 million in bets unresolved or declared losers.
Terms like “invasion” and “performance” may be open to interpretation, but they represent a challenge that prediction platforms must tackle if they aim to cover bets on various topics from pop culture to geopolitical events.