Published on: June 1, 2026, 11:34h.
Updated on: June 1, 2026, 11:34h.
- a16zcrypto highlights decreasing share of sports event contracts in Kalshi’s overall volume
- Other sectors are significantly increasing their proportion of Kalshi’s transactions
- a16z’s parent company is a significant investor in Kalshi
According to a company invested in Kalshi, while agreements related to sports events continue to play an important role in the overall volume of the prediction market, other sectors are starting to gain traction.
In a recent analysis, a16zcrypto — the arm of Andreesen Horowitz focusing on cryptocurrency and prediction markets — pointed out that although sports-related contracts had represented a considerable percentage of Kalshi’s turnover as of March, recent data suggests that traders are increasingly exploring other sectors.
“At the Kalshi Research Conference in March, it was noted that sports trading had nearly reached $3 billion in weekly volume — approximately 80% of Kalshi’s overall transactions, predominantly driven by March Madness,” the investment firm remarked. “However, what’s most intriguing? The share of sports in total volume was at an all-time low, despite its absolute figures being at an all-time high.”
A recent Pew Research Center study indicates that from July 2024 to April 2026, contracts for sports events accounted for 80% of Kalshi’s transactions, marking it as the leading prediction market platform in the U.S.
Rapid Growth in Other Categories on Kalshi
It’s widely recognized that Kalshi, alongside the prediction markets sector, is working to redefine its image, ensuring it is seen as more than just an alternative to conventional sports betting. Kalshi has enhanced its offerings to feature contracts on commodities, fine art, luxury watches, and more, aiming to attract institutional investors.
a16zcrypto points out that while sports derivatives often draw in new traders and bettors to Kalshi, other sectors are also experiencing significant growth.
“Every other category has been growing at a faster rate. The Kalshi founders identified entertainment, cryptocurrency, politics, and culture as sectors demonstrating stronger user growth, along with better volume retention compared to sports,” the firm stated.
In contrast, Polymarket — Kalshi’s closest competitor — showcases a more balanced volume distribution. During the timeframe from July 2024 to April 2026 noted in Pew’s study, sports event contracts constituted 39% of Polymarket’s turnover, with cryptocurrency and political derivatives combining for 52%.
Significance of Non-Sports Growth in Prediction Markets
There are projections that the volume of prediction markets may soar to $1 trillion or beyond by 2030. This growth hinges on expanding beyond just sports, a transition likely welcomed by the industry as it would offer substantial revenue growth and lessen legal concerns compared to those faced when diving into sports event contracts.
Moreover, decreasing reliance on sports derivatives might enable prediction markets to return to one of their original purposes — delivering potentially superior alternatives to conventional forecasts and public opinion polls.
“Fundamentally, the ability to provide a probability estimate is a unique advantage. In contrast, polls and surveys only yield opinion shares, and converting these into probabilities requires complex statistical reasoning about how the measured share relates to the wider population,” comments Scott Kominers of a16zcrypto. “Polls often reflect mere snapshots in time, while prediction markets can adjust in real-time with the arrival of new participants or information.”