Kalshi, the prediction market platform, announced an impressive trading volume of $441 million in its inaugural week of the NFL season, highlighting substantial growth in its sports-related contracts while raising questions about its pricing relative to conventional sportsbooks.
Tarek Mansour, the Chief Executive of Kalshi, stated that almost $200 million of this total was generated on Sunday alone, predominantly in sports markets. “The first week of the NFL is comparable to a presidential election. Probably nothing,” Mansour shared on X.
Kalshi has recorded a trading volume of $441m since the kickoff of the NFL.
NFL week 1 is on par with a US election.
Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/l08dshJ2eN
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) September 8, 2025
The platform has extended its offerings from yes/no event contracts to including prop and parlay-style markets, and is planning to introduce additional products in response to what a spokesperson termed as a “rapidly increasing demand for legal and regulated options.”
Despite reportedly not having formal approval from the NFL or its players’ union, Kalshi has incorporated NFL branding and imagery into its recent marketing strategies.
Experts warn that the trading volume figures do not directly correlate to sportsbook handle, which reflects the actual sums wagered, since every transaction of buying and selling contributes to Kalshi’s top line totals.
Jason Robins, CEO of DraftKings, noted that the strength of prediction markets lies more in geographical reach than in the diversity of products during his remarks at the Bank of America Gaming & Lodging Conference last week. “I believe it will be difficult for that product to find a competitive edge. However, in venues where no alternatives exist, it holds merit,” he remarked.
Analysis during Week 1 indicated that Kalshi’s contracts appeared less competitive compared to those at major sportsbooks. Jordan Bender, an analyst from Citizens Equity Research, pointed out that prices on money lines and total wagers were 10% to 25% higher than those offered by DraftKings and 16% to 23% higher than FanDuel as of September 5. By kickoff on September 7, while pricing had improved, it still remained about 7% less favorable on money lines and 10% less favorable on totals.
“We anticipate that pricing will continue to be less attractive compared to DraftKings and FanDuel due to the collateral required by market makers to facilitate trading,” Bender commented, also suggesting that Kalshi’s cash-out feature may be oversold.
“Considering the subpar pre-game pricing, user interface/user experience, and cash-out options, we do not perceive betting exchanges as a threat to the profitability of established operators (including DKNG, FLUT, MGM Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, PENN Entertainment, and Rush Street Interactive) in jurisdictions where sports betting is legally permitted, and we do not foresee any reactionary promotions or marketing arising from this,” he noted.