Published on: November 17, 2025, 10:15 AM.
Updated on: November 17, 2025, 10:15 AM.
- Kalshi’s NFL pricing lags behind DraftKings and Flutter in Week 11
- A recurring issue during this football season
- Kalshi’s pricing for NBA markets is also underwhelming
Subpar officiating isn’t the only problem overshadowing the NFL this year; Kalshi’s pricing missteps re-emerged in week 11.
This season, there have been instances where Kalshi’s pricing appeared to outperform DraftKings and FanDuel — the market leaders — but this trend has not been reliable. Specifically, in Week 11, Kalshi’s NFL money line and total pricing were off by 3% compared to DraftKings, and by 4% against FanDuel, according to analyst Jordan Bender from Citizens Equity Research.
We maintain that betting exchanges don’t pose a significant competitive threat to the profitability of established operators in legal sports betting states, as the claim of better pricing does not currently hold true,” Bender observes. “In other words, players who are not price-sensitive can access larger betting menus on conventional betting apps, and those who are price-sensitive are not finding better deals for the most liquid sports markets on Kalshi.”
The analyst and his team examined NFL pricing on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Kalshi on Friday, November 14, analyzing 28 data points to conclude that Kalshi fell short compared to its sportsbook competitors.
The Importance of Football Pricing at Kalshi
While traditional sportsbooks impose a vig on bets, prediction markets like Kalshi approach pricing differently. Instead of a vig, these exchanges charge transaction fees to retail traders while permitting professional traders and skilled bettors to operate on their platform at reduced or no fees in return for the liquidity they provide.
Although fees or vigs are anticipated, if bettors perceive that DraftKings, FanDuel, and other competitors offer better pricing — which data indicates is the case — they might see less incentive to move to platforms like Kalshi. Nonetheless, it is evident that many bettors are still engaging with Kalshi for football betting, as seven of the top ten markets on the platform over the weekend were NFL games.
Kalshi still has room for improvement in the NFL parlay market, which has long been the domain of firms like DraftKings and FanDuel. The prediction market made its foray into the accumulator betting sector earlier this season.
Bender adds, “We monitored combos (parlays) on Kalshi by averaging the odds and implied vig for 1) the over and 2) the favorite in every NFL game (14 data points). The implied vig for Kalshi stood at 24.1%, slightly below DraftKings’ 24.8% but higher than FanDuel’s 23.4%, excluding transaction fees. It appears that Kalshi pricing has generally aligned with that of sports betting companies in the initial weeks, suggesting that market makers are either using unofficial pricing data or scraping existing pricing.”
Challenges Faced by Kalshi in the NBA Market
The NBA season is just getting started, but it’s clear that Kalshi faces challenges in this arena as well. Addressing these issues is crucial, given that basketball is the second most-bet sport in the U.S. after football, and the NBA holds a significant value for sportsbook operators.
“On Thursday, we evaluated 12 NBA games scheduled for that day. Kalshi exhibited poorer average pricing for over/under and game outcomes. On average, Kalshi’s pricing was 4.80%, 6% worse than DraftKings at 4.51% and 8% worse than FanDuel at 4.43%,” Bender concludes. “We attribute the subpar pricing to lower liquidity in these markets compared to NFL games.”