Date posted: January 2, 2026, 10:01h.
Last updated on: January 2, 2026, 10:01h.
- 2026 projections for Macau GGR may be overly cautious.
- Industry analyst suggests Macau casino stocks as benefactors of China’s economic rebound.
- The sector trades at attractive valuations.
Following a robust 2025, during which concessionaires earned $30.9 billion, the highest since prior to the pandemic, Macau casino stocks are poised for further growth this year.
In a recent analysis, Stifel analyst Steven Wieczynski expresses that the Macau government’s 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth estimate of 3.5% may be conservative, suggesting instead a 4% to 8% increase for the year. Notably, the higher estimate aligns with an expected 7% growth forecast.
“Although we may see fluctuations in monthly GGR results for various reasons, our confidence in the market’s long-term resilience remains strong. We see it not as a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ the market will return to pre-pandemic levels,” the analyst notes. “Macau operators continue to emerge at discounts to historical long-term valuations, largely driven by macro and geopolitical anxieties rather than the actual market health.”
He anticipates that these macro concerns will dissipate over time, potentially enhancing Macau’s GGR estimates if VIP patronage rebounds.
Macau Casino Stocks as Attractive Investment Options
Despite Macau casino stocks significantly outperforming Hong Kong’s (HK) Hang Seng Index last year, the sector remains undervalued relative to historical standards and currently faces tepid sentiment among institutional investors.
On this note, Wieczynski points out that recent improvements in Chinese economic data and GGR have sparked renewed interest from investors, likely providing advantageous conditions for Macau casino stocks in 2026.
“As we kick off 2026, we view Macau-centric stocks as compelling investment opportunities,” states the analyst. “We believe the consensus estimates for these stocks are notably conservative and see ample potential for upside, considering the strong visitor spending trends currently unfolding in the market.”
The US-based concessionaires in Macau include Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), majority owner of MGM China, MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN).
Chinese Economic Stimulus May Boost Macau Casino Stocks
While certain US investors may require additional positive indicators to engage with Macau gaming stocks, it is evident that Beijing is taking measures to support its economy—the world’s second-largest—and such stimulus efforts could enhance Macau’s GGR and visitation rates.
“We should also recall how stimulus measures invigorated regional gaming operations in the U.S. during 2021 and 2022. We anticipate a similar effect in Macau,” comments Wieczynski. “While we can analyze the value of these stocks, challenges remain until U.S. investors gain confidence in the Chinese macroeconomic situation.”
The analyst indicates that returning to pre-pandemic GGR levels is “feasible” for Macau operators and that this shouldn’t be viewed as the upper limit, as enhanced infrastructure could facilitate long-term gaming expansion in the special administrative region (SAR).