A significant portion of American voters perceives contracts for sports events provided by prediction markets as a form of gambling, warranting regulation under state gaming laws, reveals a new poll conducted for the American Gaming Association (AGA).
The survey, carried out by YouGov between August 1 and 8 with 2,025 registered voters, indicated that 85% of participants believe contracts, such as bets on a New York Yankees game outcome, are more synonymous with gambling than financial instruments. Merely 6% likened them to commodities or securities contracts.
There was overwhelming support for regulation, with 80% affirming that sports event contracts should fall under the same guidelines as other types of online sports betting. Two-thirds of those surveyed insisted that state and tribal gaming regulators, not the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), should oversee these contracts.
“Americans recognize a sports bet when they encounter one — thus, they anticipate that prediction markets presenting sports event contracts adhere to the same regulations and consumer protection measures as all other licensed sportsbooks,” stated Bill Miller, AGA President and CEO.
The results “highlight the necessity for the CFTC to apply its regulations prohibiting gaming contracts, and for Congress to utilize its oversight abilities to safeguard against prediction markets being exploited as a loophole for gaming,” he added.
A notable skepticism directed towards prediction market platforms like Kalshi emerged, as 70% of respondents believed these companies are “taking advantage of a loophole” to function as unregulated sportsbooks. Only 16% were in favor of permitting such platforms to operate without proper sportsbook licensing.
This situation has ignited a discussion regarding consumer safeguards. At a July conference, Kalshi’s legal counsel, Josh Sterling, remarked: “Adults are free to spend their money as they choose, and if they end up losing, that’s on them.” However, nearly two-thirds of the participants disagreed, favoring the stance that companies providing gambling products are accountable for offering responsible gaming measures.
Legal actions are also underway, with several tribes in California suing Kalshi for allegedly misleading consumers by marketing its offering as sports betting “legal across all 50 states.”
The AGA has developed a dedicated webpage consolidating its regulatory resources and research on sports event contracts. This recent survey follows another AGA investigation conducted in July, which revealed that 90% of sweepstakes participants classified sweepstakes gaming as gambling, with 68% stating their primary reason for playing was to win money.