Published on: October 13, 2025, at 12:29h.
Updated on: October 13, 2025, at 12:29h.
- ICE’s $2 billion stake in Polymarket aligns with strategic objectives
- Moody’s anticipates the partnership will boost ICE’s revenue
Recently, the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) allocated $2 billion into Polymarket, a prediction market operator, valuing the investment at $8 billion pre-money. This acquisition elevates the derivative exchange’s post-investment valuation to a range of $9 billion to $10 billion. According to Moody’s Investors Service, this strategic move represents a favorable outcome for the financial services organization.
The agreement stipulates that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) owner will share Polymarket data on a global scale. Both organizations are set to collaborate on future tokenization projects, potentially enhancing ICE’s presence in the rapidly evolving decentralized finance (DeFi) realm. Moody’s indicates that this strategic investment aligns with ICE’s ambitions to expand its analytics and data offerings while also strengthening its digital currency segment.
“Despite the inherent valuation and regulatory risks, the potential for consistent revenue growth, product innovation, and competitive presence in emerging markets is a credit-positive factor, assuming ICE maintains its leverage within targeted parameters and carefully navigates regulatory challenges,” observes Moody’s.
Moody’s suggested that part of the $2 billion injected into Polymarket may require debt financing since ICE had approximately $1 billion in cash available at the conclusion of Q2, but if this is the case, it may lead to only a minor increase in ICE’s leverage.
Polymarket Partnership May Boost ICE’s Revenue Streams
Given the increasing popularity of prediction markets, which pose a legitimate challenge to the U.S. sports betting industry, ICE’s investment in Polymarket could be well-timed. Many of the professional market participants that ICE already caters to on other platforms are starting to adopt event contracts.
This deal is positioned to benefit ICE by diversifying its revenue portfolio, thereby reducing reliance on conventional trading sources that can exhibit volatility, especially during unfavorable market conditions.
“ICE’s rights to distribute Polymarket’s data are likely to bolster its recurring revenue foundation, which is less susceptible to fluctuations in cyclical trading volumes,” Moody’s adds. “The data from Polymarket, based on real-time event probabilities, will likely facilitate the creation of new products on ICE’s platform, including indexes, sentiment metrics, and additional analytics offerings, thereby broadening ICE’s product range.”
The collaboration with Polymarket also enhances ICE’s engagement in the cryptocurrency sector, where it has previously excelled. The exchange operator made an early investment in Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), transforming a $10 million input into a substantial $1.2 billion return. Moreover, ICE retains a minority stake in the digital asset marketplace Bakkt.
Competition Might Have Driven ICE to Act
ICE might have felt the need to enter the prediction markets arena as some of its competitors have already established positions. For instance, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) has partnered with Kalshi, which is Polymarket’s closest rival, while CME Group (NASDAQ: CME) and FanDuel revealed an event contract alliance in August.
“ICE joins a growing roster of traditional financial institutions delving into prediction markets. CME Group Inc. has formed a partnership with FanDuel to provide regulated event contracts, and Robinhood has launched its own platform for prediction markets,” concludes Moody’s.