Young financiers show interest in betting and prediction markets, with a quarter of Morgan Stanley’s summer interns using a mobile app for such activities in the past year. The survey, which includes over 500 North American interns, reveals a growing fascination with prediction markets among the young demographic.

Morgan Stanley data shows that 55% of surveyed interns use various betting apps, with Polymarket being a popular choice. This year’s survey marks the first time betting and prediction market usage questions were included in the poll.

Wall Street banks are acknowledging the interest in prediction markets among employees, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley setting guidelines on trading event contracts. There are concerns about the impact of sports wagering and prediction markets on young individuals, but data shows that this behavior is not uncommon.

Crowd Wisdom Insights

A study by Morgan Stanley examines the accuracy of prediction markets, contrasting them with traditional polling methods. While there’s a belief in collective wisdom delivering precise signals, the competitive landscape between prediction markets and polls challenges this notion.

The bank notes that adjustments to raw polls and the presence of ‘superforecasters’ can rival or surpass prediction market accuracy. Market superiority in segments like political polling is not definitive, with various factors influencing outcomes.

Overall, the intersection of young financiers and prediction markets highlights a growing trend that financial institutions are taking note of and incorporating into their policies.