Published on: September 26, 2025, 03:52h.
Updated on: September 26, 2025, 03:54h.
- Bills vs. Saints Spread – 15.5
- Caution Advised for Chiefs vs. Ravens
- Parsons’ Return to Dallas at ESPN BET Sparks Major Interest
This week’s NFL betting highlights revolve around the expanding spread between the Bills and the Saints (currently set at Bills -15.5), the potential for the Chiefs to have a disappointing 1-3 record against the 1-2 Ravens, and the anticipated impact of rookie QB Jaxson Dart making his debut for the Giants against the Chargers.
Bills -15.5 Against the Saints
Micah Parsons returns to Dallas with the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Steelers face the Vikings in Dublin, Ireland. With six teams unbeaten heading into the weekend, two of them, the Eagles and Bucs, are set to clash. The Bills, Colts, 49ers, and Chargers are also among the contenders.
“The Bills are showcasing the largest spread of the NFL season so far, yet bettors are boldly backing a two-touchdown gap, as Buffalo (initially -14.5, now -15.5) ranks as our second most-backed spread by ticket counts, and third most backed by handle,” detailed Adrian Horton, Senior Director of North American Sports Trading at ESPN BET. “The Lions have also surged to a double-digit spread, now at –10.5 against the Browns, becoming the third most bet spread by ticket counts and second most by handle.”
Parsons’ Return to Big D
“The Chargers have emerged as a popular bet this week, leading in ticket counts for both outright victory (-300 ML) and to cover (-6.5) against the Giants and rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Our top game by total handle is Packers-Cowboys, spotlighting Micah Parsons’ return to Jerry World in primetime. The trend has heavily favored Green Bay, with over 80% of spread tickets and 90% of handle backing them to cover -6.5 on the road. Currently, betting on Parsons to record a sack ranks as our third most popular player prop (excluding Anytime TDs) by total handle.”
On the prop side, BetMGM highlights include bettors favoring Omarion Hampton (LAC) Over 65.5 Rushing yards -115, Jaylen Warren (PIT) Over 21.5 Receiving yards -140, Hunter Henry (NE) Over 39.5 Receiving yards -110, J.K. Dobbins (DEN) Over 59.5 Rushing yards -145, and Daniel Jones (IND) Over 215.5 Passing yards -115.
Which Super Bowl Contenders Will Find Themselves at 1-3?
“Week 4 begins with an international match, where bettors are favoring the Vikings to prevail in Dublin against the Steelers. In the U.S., attention shifts to Sunday night as the Packers travel to Dallas for Micah Parsons’ comeback, with the public heavily supporting Green Bay. The Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos are also attracting public interest this week,” stated Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager at BetMGM.
Top underdog bets (by tickets) at BetMGM include the Steelers (+120), Saints (+1000), Chiefs (+125), Colts (+155), and Bucs (+155).
At DraftKings, focusing on the six unbeaten teams, the Chargers enjoy 91% of handle and 93% of bets at -278 against the Giants, the Eagles attract 67% of handle and 72% of bets against the Bucs (-192, with Bucs at +160), the Bills at -1450 see 84% of handle and 97% of bets against the Saints, the 49ers at -166 get 48% of handle and 75% of bets against the Jaguars, and the surprising Colts as underdogs against the Rams (+160) see 44% of handle and 31% of bets.
Caution Advised on Chiefs/Ravens Bet
Phill Gray, the former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction for over two decades, advises steering clear of the Chiefs/Ravens matchup.
“Both teams are eager to avoid a dismal 1-3 start. Historically, Lamar Jackson struggles against Kansas City (1-5). Could this be altered given a seemingly less powerful Patrick Mahomes offense? Currently, their production is well below the standard set during the Mahomes era. The prior week’s performance against the Giants is not sufficient for any reliable assessment,” he remarked.
“With the Chiefs as +2.5 point underdogs at home, public sentiment may shift toward the moneyline for them at +125 or better in some places. The spread may not reach 3. There’s notable interest in the under 48.5, yet Lamar has the capability to score. It leans over in what could evolve into an intense matchup if Mahomes regains his rhythm.”
Bills/Saints Spread Surprises Bettors
The Bills at -16.5 in certain sportsbooks is a considerable ask for any team, Gray noted. This might adjust closer to kickoff. Over the last five years, double-digit favorites have covered at a rate of 57.5%, he added.
“Focusing on the win, favorites with double-digit spreads have just about broken even in past wins, so consider it a flip of the coin for this spread. The Bills as outright favorites will undoubtedly feature prominently in combinations and spread teasers. The sportsbooks will be wishing for a miracle from New Orleans to keep the game competitive,” he added.
“Jaxson Dart holds the future of the franchise and showed promise during preseason, but his initial game will be a challenge against what is potentially the best defense in the NFL, ranking first in the red zone. Expect significant action on the Giants’ moneyline (+250 or better) fueled by hype and fan support hoping for a remarkable start to Dart’s career. Money on LA -6.5 is expected to surge. If the Giants’ moneyline does not gain traction, this game could see the line push up to 7.”