Throughout the World Cup, Polymarket showcased exceptional pricing, becoming the second major sporting event where a prediction market platform has outperformed conventional sportsbooks in terms of pricing.
According to Jordan Bender, an analyst at Citizens Equity Research, Polymarket’s low fees allowed it to achieve the most competitive pricing throughout all 104 World Cup matches, with an average implied vig of just 2.7%. Without Polymarket’s presence, DraftKings and FanDuel—leading domestic sportsbook brands—offered the most favorable pricing in only 38 and seven games, respectively, as highlighted by Bender.
Bender has been tracking price data since the 2025 NFL season. Despite fluctuations in yes/no exchanges during the U.S. football season, notable advancements are being observed.
“This improvement is likely due to increased trading volumes, stronger market-maker engagement, and heightened competition among liquidity providers,” comments Bender. “As liquidity expands and spreads narrow, prediction markets become increasingly competitive with traditional sportsbooks in states where legal sports betting is allowed, prompting a beneficial cycle where enhanced pricing draws more trading activity, which in turn boosts liquidity and odds further.”
Bender notes that the World Cup and the NCAA Tournament represent two significant “tentpole” occasions where prediction markets provided superior pricing compared to traditional sportsbooks.
Is the Pricing Advantage of Prediction Markets Significant?
The significance of this pricing advantage hinges on the type of clientele. As Bender explains, knowledgeable bettors, many of whom lean towards prediction markets, are very price-conscious and strive to secure every possible advantage.
On the other hand, the majority of casual bettors—often referred to as “recs” by industry pros—tend to be less sensitive to pricing. This group is more concerned with factors like accessibility in their states, brand familiarity, and user experience.
Post-World Cup, both sportsbooks and yes/no exchanges may face a temporary slowdown in volume, but the next pricing evaluation for prediction markets is expected in about six weeks as engagement ramps up ahead of the 2026 NFL season.
“While trading volumes are anticipated to decline during this seasonal pause before the NFL season, we foresee the next crucial test of this pricing advantage occurring as liquidity accumulates approaching September,” adds Bender. “Should prediction markets continue to excel over sportsbooks during the NFL season, it would further indicate that the pricing advantage is intrinsic rather than merely event-driven.”
World Cup: A Surge in Volume for Prediction Markets
Now that the World Cup has concluded, two key insights emerge. The tournament was a major driver for customer acquisition and volume enhancement for prediction markets.
Daily active users of the Polymarket app in the U.S. surged following the tournament’s initiation, with H2 Gambling Capital estimating that prediction market activity represented 27% of all regulated sports bets in the country during this period.
It’s crucial to recognize that the 27% figure pertains to distinct metrics of volume. Prediction market turnover accounts for both buying and selling activities, while sportsbook handle reflects the overall monetary amount wagered on an event.