Published on: November 25, 2024, 01:52h.
Last updated on: November 25, 2024, 02:17h.
Prediction platform Polymarket has restricted access for French users due to an investigation by ANJ, the online gaming regulator in France.
The regulator started looking into the platform’s compliance with French gambling laws before the US Presidential elections. This was triggered by a French trader on Polymarket known as the “Trump Whale,” who bet millions on the former president’s political comeback.
The trader reportedly won about $85 million betting on Trump, catching the attention of ANJ. Overall, Polymarket users wagered approximately $3.2 billion on the election’s outcome.
Polymarket operates as a decentralized financial exchange and prediction platform that enables users to trade on future event outcomes using cryptocurrency. The platform uses event contracts, a derivative type for predicting “yes” or “no” outcomes before expiration.
The company lacks a gambling license from ANJ and isn’t regulated by the French financial products regulator, AMF.
Unregulated Platform
Starting on Friday, visitors from France, including the notable trader Trump Whale, would see a message upon entering the platform:
“You seem to be in the United States, France, or another related jurisdiction. Trading is restricted for U.S. individuals, persons in the United States, France, or residents in restricted jurisdictions.”
In 2022, Delaware-registered Polymarket was directed to block access for US residents and pay a $1.4 million settlement to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for engaging in illegal unregistered event markets.
It is uncertain whether US and French residents can access the platform using virtual private networks (VPNs) or not.
Polymarket’s claim of predicting US elections better than traditional polls is likely based on having a substantial sample size of registered US voters.
FBI Raid
A week after the election, the FBI raided the Manhattan apartment of Shayne Coplan, the company’s founder and CEO. Reports indicate that agents confiscated Coplan’s phone and electronic devices.
Following the raid, a Polymarket spokesperson suggested that it was a form of “political retribution” for predicting election outcomes.
It is probable that the FBI is investigating how US citizens accessed the platform, though the specifics of the investigation are unclear.
Coplan was not arrested, and no criminal charges have been filed against him.