Published on: October 15, 2025, at 10:38 AM.
Updated on: October 15, 2025, at 10:38 AM.
- Polymarket trends suggest potential insider leaks during poker tournament.
- Peacock’s poker coverage faced scrutiny over regulatory concerns.
- Renewed insider trading worries underscore calls for accountability in prediction markets.
The revelation of the National Heads-Up Poker Championship champion was meant to remain a secret until its anticipated airing on Peacock later this year. However, Polymarket seems to have prematurely revealed the outcome, as per initial reports by PokerScout.
Spoiler alert: As of this writing, Sam Soverel from Florida is trading at 90.5% on the prediction market, having previously peaked at 99.4%. This dramatic increase in Soverel’s trading percentage—representing one player out of 64—strongly implies that some individuals possessed undisclosed information, which should have been safeguarded under a nondisclosure agreement.
The championship, recorded in early August, is set to return after a 12-year break, with ten episodes scheduled to air on Peacock this fall, later available on PokerGO.
The Insider Dilemma
This incident underscores the challenges of insider trading on platforms like Polymarket, which lacks the federal regulation that competitors like Kalshi have. If such regulations were in place, it could prompt inquiries into potential market manipulation, insider trading infractions, and compliance issues under the Commodity Exchange Act.
In state-regulated sports betting markets, operators typically cannot accept bets on events where outcomes are already known to a select few. This is why betting on the Oscars or professional wrestling is not permitted due to the risk of insider manipulation.
On the eve of last Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement, the odds for Venezuelan opposition leader and eventual winner María Corina Machado surged from 3.6% to 73% within hours, again suggesting that someone acted on undisclosed information.
Traders frequently scrutinize transaction data for indicators of insider betting, attempting to capitalize on such information advantages.
Transparency Over Secrets
Polymarket does not have a policy against insider trading. In fact, economist Robin Hanson from George Mason University recently contended that permitting insiders to trade actually enhances the platform’s predictive accuracy.
“If the goal of prediction markets is to obtain accurate data, allowing insider trading is essential,” he asserted in a discussion with the crypto publication Decrypt.
However, it is difficult to convey this perspective to poker enthusiasts who feel the excitement of the National Heads-Up Poker Championship has been undermined—or to Peacock, which may see a decline in viewership as a result of this leak. This situation serves as a potent reminder that in the realm of prediction markets, secrets can often be treated as valuable commodities.