Published on: January 23, 2026, 01:19h.
Updated on: January 23, 2026, 01:32h.
- Prediction market Polymarket offers event contracts related to its rivals.
- One such contract explores when Kalshi will stop enabling sports event transactions in Massachusetts.
Polymarket, a key player in the prediction market (PM) industry outside the U.S., is now accepting bets on the prospects of its main U.S. competitor, Kalshi.
Kalshi is widely regarded as the frontrunner in the burgeoning prediction market domain, with Polymarket as its closest competitor, both rapidly growing since they began offering sports outcome contracts last year.
Currently, Polymarket is not operational in the U.S. but intends to return following the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) granting approval to the crypto-based PM last December. Polymarket exited the U.S. market in 2022 after a CFTC enforcement action regarding unregistered event contract activities, resulting in a $1.4 million penalty.
Kalshi’s offerings in sports betting have attracted scrutiny, prompting state attorneys general, gaming regulators, and legislators to request the CFTC to mandate the cessation of sports trades.
Future of Kalshi
This week, a Massachusetts superior court judge issued a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, mandating the prediction market to halt all sports event contracts by today, Friday, January 23. Judge Christopher Barry-Smith asserted that requiring Kalshi to obtain a sports betting license from the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (MGC) “serves the public interest.”
Legal experts and judges have noted that the CFTC lacks the necessary resources to adequately oversee sports contracts, ensuring their integrity and the protection of trading platforms. As Kalshi appeals Barry-Smith’s decision, Polymarket is placing bets on the platform’s future in Massachusetts.
“Will Kalshi cease offering sports event contracts in Massachusetts by Jan. 31?” is an active contract on Polymarket. Traders believe the legal situation may extend at least until the end of the month, with “yes” shares valued at just four cents.
Since the inception of this contract on January 20, the expected timeline for Kalshi stopping sports event contracts in Massachusetts has increased, especially following Barry-Smith’s ruling. Shares peaked at 78 cents on January 21, shortly after Kalshi announced its appeal. Approximately $8,000 has been transacted in this market within three days.
The term “stopping offering sports event contracts” encompasses any deliberate pause—whether permanent or temporary—in Kalshi’s provision of such contracts for users in Massachusetts that is not merely a consequence of normal operations. Delays due to scheduling gaps, technical issues, or unintended reasons won’t qualify,” according to Polymarket rules.
Moreover, an official declaration from Kalshi indicating it will halt sports event contracts in Massachusetts within the stipulated market timeframe will suffice to settle the market, regardless of when or if the implementation occurs.
Forecasting Prediction Markets
As far as Casino.org can ascertain, Polymarket stands as the first and only prediction market presently hosting event contracts about competing prediction markets.
The first instance occurred in late November when Polymarket launched a contract related to Robinhood, another prediction market, self-certifying sports event contracts by March 31, 2026 (“yes” shares are trading at 71 cents). Additionally, in December, a contract was introduced regarding Robinhood’s venture into a PM via MIAXdx, a CFTC-regulated derivatives exchange, by March 31 (“yes” shares trading at 61 cents).
Neither Kalshi nor Robinhood have released any contracts concerning the business futures of their competitors.