Published on: March 30, 2026, 02:29h.
Updated on: March 30, 2026, 02:29h.
- Average bet size on Polymarket stands at merely $10
- Research shows the typical user on this platform engages in 25 trades each day
- This behavior aligns more closely with active trading, rather than with traditional sports betting
Prediction markets are attracting attention from institutional investors and high-stakes bettors, yet they still face the challenge that their average user is a financially limited, active trader.
A recent study by BeInCrypto reveals that activity on Polymarket, the leading prediction market by trading volume, shows the average bet/trade size is only $10, while the overall average sits at $89. This latter figure skews higher due to a few participants trading larger amounts on Polymarket.
The distribution reveals a clearer picture: approximately 20% of wallets operate in the $0 to $10 range, another 27% in the $10 to $50 spectrum, and around 11% within the $50 to $100 range,” as noted by the publication. “In summary, over 57% of users trade for less than $100, while more than 80% trade below $500.”
When viewed from another angle, prediction markets’ current user demographic reflects a similar trend seen in brokerage platforms like Robinhood during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. Essentially, many risk-seeking participants with limited financial resources dominate these markets.
Trading Patterns in Prediction Markets Differ from Sports Betting
There’s significant discussion regarding sports event contracts making up a large portion of volume on yes/no exchanges, leading to comparisons with conventional sports betting from certain lawmakers and state regulators.
Nevertheless, the trading habits of an average Polymarket user are more aligned with day traders rather than sports bettors. BeInCrypto highlights that the typical Polymarket participant executes 25 trades daily. While this is a decrease from a peak of 37 earlier this year, it remains exceptionally high compared to standard sports betting activity.
A CivicScience survey conducted last November indicated that only 31% of regulated sports bettors make daily bets. This reinforces the idea that many small-scale prediction market traders resemble day traders more than traditional sports bettors.
The BeInCrypto analysis corroborates this observation, noting that many Polymarket users continuously engage, rather than making a single bet and stepping away. They often trade across various markets, frequently making high-volume trades.
The Dominance of Retail Traders in Prediction Markets
Operators of prediction markets are working to expand their appeal to professional participants and skilled bettors. It’s common for these exchanges to offer reduced or waived fees to larger sports bettors in exchange for the liquidity they provide.
In an effort to attract institutional traders, Kalshi may soon introduce margin trading and is making additional efforts to engage Wall Street. However, the current behavior within prediction markets is still predominantly aligned with that of retail participants.
“High-frequency, low-value trading characterizes retail finance, whether the underlying asset is a stock, a digital token, or a prediction contract,” remarks BeInCrypto.