Published on: March 25, 2026, 09:48h.

Updated on: March 25, 2026, 09:52h.

• The PREDICT Act seeks to prohibit Congress members from participating in specific prediction markets.
• Congress has introduced various bills concerning prediction markets.
• The Republican majority in Congress may resist passing these legislative proposals.

In yet another development, a new bill has been presented in the US Congress regarding prediction markets.

The US gaming sector is flexing its lobbying capabilities in Washington, as the term “prediction markets” gains traction on Capitol Hill. These regulated financial trading platforms, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, expanded into sports event contracts last year, sparking renewed legislative attention on political and world event predictions.

The most recent proposal originates from Representatives Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) and Adrian Smith (R-AZ). Known as the PREDICT Act (Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act), this bill aims to bar Congress members and their aides from engaging in prediction markets that involve political outcomes and decision-making.

“The American populace is weary of politicians exploiting their positions for personal gain, and the growth of prediction markets has intensified these concerns. Recently, we’ve witnessed instances of obscure traders reaping substantial profits from events like conflicts with Iran and the duration of government shutdowns, raising pressing questions about the manipulation of insider information,” Budzinski stated.

“Being in service to Americans is a privilege, not a route to personal enrichment,” Smith remarked. “Our straightforward, bipartisan initiative aims to restore public confidence that elected officials’ choices are based on integrity, not personal gain.”

Issues Surrounding Prediction Markets

The legislation put forth by Budzinski and Smith follows a series of questionable trading incidents on major prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, particularly related to military actions involving the US and Israel against Iran and its subsequent responses. Allegations have emerged that Washington insiders manipulated prediction markets to profit from their privileged information.

Prediction markets enable traders to buy and sell shares based on future events, redeeming shares from accurate predictions at $1 each.

Investigations revealed thousands of well-timed trades predicting when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would exit power, with those traders making millions in profits.

Numerous Proposals, Slim Chances

The PREDICT Act resembles the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act, proposed in January by Representative Ritchie Torres (R-NY), albeit with less engaging wording. Several other bills addressing prediction markets are also circulating in Congress.

Senators Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Greg Casar (D-TX) are behind the BETS OFF Act, intending to restrict prediction market activities involving government actions, terrorism, military conflict, and assassinations. Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) have introduced the Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act, which aspires to establish federal regulations for CFTC-governed markets.

However, the current GOP majority in Congress may be reluctant to approve any of these prediction market initiatives, as former President Donald Trump has expressed support for these financial tools, and his selected CFTC Chair, Mike Selig, indicated the administration’s backing for “lawful innovation in these markets.”