Published on: April 9, 2026, 07:56 AM.

Updated on: April 9, 2026, 07:56 AM.

• Unusual trading patterns were noted on Polymarket prior to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
• CFTC asserts that prediction markets must play a proactive role in identifying insider trading.

A thorough examination of blockchain data associated with the Polymarket prediction platform reveals the creation of over 50 trading accounts just hours before President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

Polymarket operates as a cryptocurrency-based prediction market regulated as a Designated Contract Market by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing users to trade futures and options tied to various commodities, indices, or other instruments.

Analysis by Dune, a blockchain analytics provider, found that over 50 newly created Polymarket wallets placed substantial “Yes” bets on a US-Iran ceasefire right before the announcement.

Another wallet, created just 12 minutes before Trump’s announcement, placed nearly $32,000 on the prospect of a ceasefire, reaping a profit of $48,500.

Potential Insider Trading Concerns

Both Polymarket and its more prominent rival, Kalshi, have come under scrutiny for enabling bets tied to sporting outcomes. Their offerings in political and wartime event futures, including speculation on when Ali Khamenei will stop being Iran’s supreme leader, have also sparked controversy.

Numerous Democrats within Congress argue that individuals with insider knowledge in Washington, DC, have leveraged confidential information for personal profit by engaging in significant trades on prediction markets.

“Americans are frustrated with politicians exploiting their power for personal enrichment, and the emergence of prediction markets has amplified these issues. Recently, we’ve witnessed unknown traders making significant gains from events ranging from military actions in Iran to the duration of government shutdowns, raising vital questions about possible insider information,” stated US Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) last month while proposing legislation to prevent Congress members from participating in prediction markets.

However, the concerning trading activity related to the ceasefire may not necessarily imply the use of privileged information or advance knowledge of the announcement. Throughout that day, Trump had intensified his threat rhetoric, even claiming, “A whole civilization may perish tonight” if a ceasefire was not reached.

Oversight of Prediction Markets

Licensed online sportsbooks have implemented various surveillance systems designed to flag unusual betting behavior. David Miller, the enforcement director at the CFTC, recently stated that a significant portion of the responsibility for monitoring federally sanctioned prediction markets falls on the licensees themselves.

Exchanges have the responsibility to maintain appropriate surveillance, compliance practices, and to foster fair trading environments, protecting markets from abusive behaviors, and ensuring they only list contracts that cannot be manipulated,” Miller noted.

“The integrity of exchanges in performing their roles is vital in the battle against market manipulation and insider trading,” Miller emphasized.