Published on: June 15, 2026, 10:09h.
Updated on: June 15, 2026, 10:09h.
- World Cup prediction market volume has surpassed that of the Super Bowl
- Bernstein predicts Robinhood will benefit from “significant tailwinds” due to the event
- The firm is processing World Cup trades via its Rothera platform
Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) saw its stock price jump on Monday following reports indicating that the early stages of the World Cup have caused a surge in prediction market volume, outpacing activity linked to the Super Bowl.
In a recent analysis, Bernstein’s analyst Gautam Chhugani noted that prediction market operators recorded $2.2 billion in transactions on June 11, which more than doubled to $4.8 billion on Friday, coinciding with the US’s first World Cup match against Paraguay. This $”4.8 billion” figure in prediction market activity for the tournament’s opening days is over three times the $1.4 billion seen in yes/no exchanges during the Super Bowl.
The initial turnover for World Cup prediction markets, including Robinhood’s, is promising, especially considering that some top teams, like Argentina, England, and France, have yet to start their matches. Furthermore, this volume could remain high if the US team progresses in the tournament.
Bernstein forecasts that thanks to the World Cup, Robinhood’s prediction market revenue could skyrocket to $586 million in 2026, up from $150 million the previous year. If this projection holds true, it would make up 17% of the brokerage’s transaction-based revenue and account for 10% of its overall revenue.
Why World Cup Volume Matters for Robinhood
Chhugani’s insights on the “strong tailwinds” from the World Cup come at a crucial moment for Robinhood, as the company announced prior to the tournament that it would facilitate World Cup trades through its Rothera platform.
While Robinhood has historically partnered with Kalshi for event contracts, they have indicated a plan to progressively develop Rothera, signaling their aim to retain more prediction market revenue internally.
In a different light, Robinhood is positioning the World Cup as a testing ground for Rothera. Using its extensive distribution advantages, this strategy seems to be effective. Earlier this month, the trading platform introduced a new pricing model in which traders incur commissions based on both contract price and order size.
Members of Robinhood Gold can benefit from transaction cost reductions of up to 50%. The company is routing specific World Cup and Major League Baseball trades through Rothera.
Other Notable Players in the Prediction Market during the World Cup
As Kalshi and Polymarket remain private entities, investors and traders are increasingly turning to companies like Robinhood to express their opinions on the prediction market landscape.
Public companies such as Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) are also included in this category, with DraftKings seeing a notable increase in the volume of its event contracts.
Bernstein also highlighted Coinbase and DraftKings as potential beneficiaries of the World Cup’s prediction market. The research firm anticipates the industry could amass as much as $10 billion in volume by the time the tournament concludes next month.