Published on: October 28, 2025, 02:18h.
Updated on: October 28, 2025, 02:18h.
- Robinhood expected to earn $20 million in Q3 from prediction markets
- This represents a twofold increase from the previous quarter
- Analyst predicts that with the contribution of football contracts, this figure could rise to $50 million in Q4
Boosted by the commencement of the football season, Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) is estimated to have achieved $20 million in prediction markets revenue for the third quarter, marking an over 100% increase from the previous quarter. An analyst has suggested that this figure could potentially exceed $50 million in the current quarter.
According to a report released on Monday by Compass Point analyst Ed Engel, Robinhood has likely generated $20 million in prediction markets revenue between July and September, significantly outperforming the figures from the June quarter. It’s worth noting that the third quarter includes just one month of football—America’s most bet-on sport.
A full quarter enjoying the benefits of both college football and the NFL could drive Robinhood’s prediction market revenue up to $50 million, the Compass Point analyst indicated, suggesting more than a fivefold increase from the second quarter.
“We project HOOD’s Q4 predictions to reach around $50 million alongside a complete NFL season,” the analyst remarks. “We believe the market is underestimating HOOD’s revenue from crypto in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, which encompasses increased fee rates and staking revenue.”
In August, Robinhood, based in California, revealed that its Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD) division would roll out event contracts for NFL and college football. Compass Point has issued a “buy” rating on the stock with a price target of $161, suggesting considerable upside potential from current price levels.
Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Growth Potential
In the prediction markets arena, Robinhood collaborates with Kalshi and several other partners, with estimates indicating that the brokerage accounts for 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s daily turnover.
This collaboration may be a contributing factor to the valuation of Kalshi exceeding $5 billion, with fresh rumors implying that the upcoming funding round for the privately-held company could yield a valuation between $10 billion and $12 billion.
Although not openly discussed in the Silicon Valley or broader venture capital circles, investing in Kalshi at such elevated valuation levels may be seen as precarious, particularly because Robinhood shares the economics—a per contract fee of one cent, as per Engel—of its prediction markets exposure with Kalshi. As revenue from event contracts continues to flourish, the trading platform may eventually be motivated to establish its own presence in the prediction markets domain.
While the firm hasn’t explicitly stated that this is in the immediate plans, it remains open to the idea of acquiring a prediction markets entity or developing an in-house platform—scenarios the venture investment sector may currently overlook in its evaluation of Kalshi.
Robinhood Expands Its Offering of Event Contracts
Recently, Robinhood disclosed the introduction of over 100 new event contracts, including sports derivatives, as part of its prediction markets portfolio. Some of these contracts, relating to the NBA and the World Series, are already active, with additional offerings set to be released in the coming weeks and months.
This expansion enhances Robinhood’s existing partnerships in the prediction markets sector, indicating that for the time being, the company will continue to collaborate with Kalshi.
“Event contracts are available through Robinhood Derivatives via either Kalshi or ForecastEx. When selecting an exchange to partner with, we evaluate various factors to ensure the optimal fit for our customers, including liquidity and the types of contracts available,” a representative informed Casino.org.