Article Date: August 27, 2025, 02:18h.
Recent Update: August 27, 2025, 02:18h.
- NFL season starts on September 4 with Cowboys vs. Eagles
- Bills and Ravens emerge as Super Bowl betting frontrunners
- Sports Betting Hall of Famer Johnny Avello shares insights for bettors
This time last year, the American Gaming Association revealed its NFL betting predictions for the season, forecasting USD $35 billion in wagers through legal sportsbooks. We can expect estimates for the current season soon.
Betting Insight
Last year, it was anticipated that legal betting on Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles would reach USD $1.4 billion. Oddsmakers have been strategizing for the 2025 season since the Eagles lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy last February.
Casino.org conducted an exclusive interview with the renowned Las Vegas Strip bookmaker Johnny Avello, a Sports Betting Hall of Famer and the Director of Race & Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings. He shared essential tips for bettors this upcoming season.
This past day was notable, marking roster cutdown day when teams had to finalize their rosters to 53 players, leaving nearly 1,200 players without a job.
Season Launching on September 4
A number of prominent players were let go – including QB Tommy DeVito of the New York Giants, WR Hunter Renfrow from Carolina, QB Kyle Trask in Tampa, WR Simi Fehoko in Arizona, CB Mike Hilton with the Miami Dolphins, and WR Xavier Restrepo in Tennessee, who was a favorite target for Cameron Ward at Miami. Veteran punter Cameron Johnston was also released by Pittsburgh.
However, Avello stated that none of these moves will significantly affect betting lines.
Daniel Jones securing the QB role over Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis could slightly adjust a line, possibly by half a point, but overall, NFL betting lines are established months ahead.
Adjusting Betting Lines After Initial Weeks
“Our strategy focuses on team strength. We assess their initial power rating as the season starts,” Avello explained. “Home field advantages can vary based on last season’s performance.”
“Big adjustments occur after Week 1 and Week 2, and those figures generally stabilize thereafter. While minor adjustments may be necessary, significant changes are common following Week 1 when we first see teams in action.
With the shortened preseason format—now only three games—many veterans play sparingly, if at all. When they do participate, it’s often for limited time.
Focus on Daniels and Burrow
“Our method has evolved recently. Teams entering the season sometimes appear offensively rusty, while defenses are performing well, which is a trend we’ve observed over the past few seasons,” Avello noted. “We are confident in our opening power ratings as we proceed but are ready to make quick adjustments.”
Regarding the recent cuts, Avello mentioned that these players are not likely to impact their teams’ performance, making it unnecessary for oddsmakers to alter the betting lines.
Avello reiterated that these roster changes won’t shift betting dynamics.
Minimal Impact from Roster Cuts
“The Titans released [Xavier] Restrepo,” he remarked. “He was a key receiver and a favorite target for Cam Ward. Ward may have to seek alternatives this season, especially since that team isn’t ranked highly to begin with.”
Which teams does Avello anticipate seeing the most betting interest from this season?
Unsurprisingly, the Bills (+600), Eagles (+700), Ravens (+600), and Chiefs (+850) are at the top. Then there’s the next tier including the Broncos (+2200), Patriots (+6000), Bears (+4500), Bengals (+2200), and Chargers (+2500) that are also on his radar.
Several player performances and team trends from the previous season have influenced this year’s betting lines.
Will Barkley Shine?
“Jalen Daniels, last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, was quite a surprise. Expectations for [the Commanders] are now high, and we’ll see if more adjustments are needed,” Avello stated. “Joe Burrow, who was named Comeback Player of the Year last season, showcased a performance worthy of MVP consideration. He’s another player expected to attract betting interest in props as well as team wagers.”
“We also keep a watchful eye on [Saquon] Barkley from the Eagles. He was consistently selected as the first touchdown scorer in every game last season,” he added. “Don’t overlook the 49ers—they lacked continuity without Deebo Samuel [who was traded to the Commanders in March] and Christian McCaffrey last year, making them only average.”
The Bills boasted an 8-0 record at home last season, proving formidable at Highmark Stadium. The Browns concluded last season on a six-game losing streak, so we will monitor if bettors continue to oppose them.
Keeping a Close Eye on Wilson
“The Lions are expected to draw significant betting action each game this season,” he mentioned.
Avello highlighted that the average passing yards per game have noticeably decreased across the league. Teams and quarterbacks have shifted towards a run-centric game, which is something oddsmakers will carefully consider as it can reshape how they approach props and the game as a whole.
He also expressed intent to closely observe Russell Wilson as the QB for the Giants, rookie Jaxson Dart who’s a strong contender, and Ashton Jeanty, a rookie RB with the Raiders who is generating a lot of buzz.
Bettors should also take note of this year’s rule change concerning touchbacks moving to the 35-yard line. This could improve offensive positions and potentially impact total scores. Additionally, both teams now receive a possession in overtime, which may affect the lines and totals as well.