Published on: June 18, 2026, 02:12h.

Updated on: June 18, 2026, 02:12h.

• Kalshi retains significant dominance in US prediction markets
• Regulated trade volume surged 21% to reach $20.4 billion in May
• DraftKings, Polymarket, and others intensify the already competitive market

Kalshi maintains a commanding presence in the US prediction market sector, commanding nearly 90% of the market share, although competition is on the rise.

According to the initial “US Prediction Market Tracker” report by research analyst Jeffrey Stantial from Stifel, the volume on yes/no exchanges governed by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) experienced a 21% month-over-month increase, reaching $20.4 billion, with Kalshi maintaining approximately 90% of the market. Having recently surpassed $100 billion in lifetime notional volume, Kalshi is poised for another robust month in June, showing indications of a 40% month-over-month turnover increase thus far, as noted by the analyst. Sports betting continues to play a critical role in driving volume for both Kalshi and its competitors.

“Currently, sports account for approximately 58% of total volumes on Kalshi, while the ‘combo’ category, significantly related to sports betting, has rapidly escalated to around 27% of notional volume in May,” points out Stantial. “When combined, sports and ‘combo’ volumes represent around 86% of the overall transaction volumes.”

“Combo” is a term in the prediction market space referring to multi-leg bets or parlays, which have historically contributed to profit margins for conventional sportsbooks.

Kalshi’s Dominance Despite Growing Competition

Kalshi clearly dominates the US prediction market landscape, yet this has not deterred new competitors from entering the field. The competition is rapidly escalating as various financial and gaming companies recognize the benefits of customer acquisition and profit margins associated with event contracts.

Robinhood is collaborating with Kalshi on part of its yes/no derivatives segment and is increasingly routing event contract order flow through its Rothera platform, a partnership with market maker Susquehanna International Group.

“Robinhood initiated routing some order flow to its internal exchange, Rothera, on May 30, with total cumulative notional trading volume reaching approximately $305 million by June 15,” remarks Stantial. “Previously, Robinhood contributed about 25% of Kalshi’s volumes, according to our estimates, though it will retain some flow with Kalshi for now due to deeper liquidity.”

Non-Sports Volume Gaining Traction

Up to this point in the evolution of prediction markets, sports event contracts have been the core component. However, new segments, including cryptocurrency and perpetual futures (referred to as “perps”), are starting to play a more significant role in driving volume.

“Beyond sports, cryptocurrency is rapidly becoming the fastest-growing category, quickly reaching about two-thirds of non-sports volume and approximately 11% of total volumes (up from roughly 7% in the past six months),” Stantial states. “Kalshi recently launched ‘perps’ on May 29, which should further boost category growth, generating over $100 million in volumes on the first day and exceeding $1 billion within the first week.”

Operators like Coinbase, Kalshi, and Polymarket are now providing timed or short-resolution markets for major cryptocurrencies, with these contracts rapidly becoming crucial generators of non-sports volume.