Published on: November 20, 2025, 08:03h.
Updated on: November 20, 2025, 08:03h.
The landscape of sports prediction markets is shifting as they gain significant traction within the US betting sector.
With influential players like Kalshi and Polymarket forming partnerships with professional sports organizations and traditional derivatives markets, sports prediction platforms are transitioning into the mainstream. The trading volume has soared, with over $30 billion in trades recorded across main platforms.
Although trading volume varies significantly from conventional sports betting figures, which reflect the total bets placed, gaming analysts are optimistic about the growth potential of prediction markets.
These prediction markets allow users to buy and sell shares in the outcomes of events, including games and individual player performances, with winning shares redeemable for $1. Operators generate revenue through trade commissions, account fees, and sometimes by taking positions in contracts.
Understanding Sports Contracts in Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have established themselves legally by framing their contracts as financial instruments. They have secured Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates futures trading.
This perspective is not universally accepted; recent congressional hearings saw CFTC Chairman nominee Michael Selig questioned about his views on sports prediction markets. Selig, who specializes in cryptocurrency and is currently the chief counsel at the SEC, indicated he might need to seek judicial clarification.
CFTC regulations bar event contracts associated with gambling. Nevertheless, with Donald Trump Jr. advising Kalshi and Polymarket, and Trump Media eyeing opportunities in the prediction markets, the consensus in Washington seems to be leaning towards the permanence of sports prediction markets.
Ambitious Future Projections
Spectrum Gaming, a prominent consultancy in the gaming sector, recently published insights regarding prediction markets.
Their report, “Spotlight: The Rise of Sports Prediction Markets,” describes these platforms as a “disruptive force” that combines elements of betting, financial trading, and crowd-sourced forecasting.
If sports prediction platforms continue to operate under CFTC oversight, Spectrum anticipates that they will capture a significant portion of the legal sports betting market.
“With US sports betting revenue projected to hit $33 billion by 2030, a mere 10% market share for these prediction platforms translates to a $3.3 billion opportunity. This figure could increase further if they penetrate non-betting states and explore offshore markets,” Spectrum noted.
While optimistic, Spectrum also urged caution.
“As the industry adapts to new forms of engagement and risk, prediction markets present both opportunities and challenges. Their future depends on how well stakeholders can balance innovation and integrity, along with whether regulators choose to endorse structured experimentation instead of outright prohibition,” the consultancy concluded.