Published on: September 19, 2025, 08:50h. 

Updated on: September 19, 2025, 08:50h.

Phill Gray, who led trading operations at Sports Interaction for over two decades and is now an industry consultant, has witnessed the challenges of a “rough start” in NFL betting as Week 3 approaches.

Favorites in Control

With favorites winning 25-8 thus far, parlays and teasers have taken center stage, according to Gray. 

“While totals and props may perform reasonably well, with the under coming in around 50%, the dominance of favorite wins negatively impacts total GGR,” he explains.

The Buffalo Bills’ decisive 31-21 victory over the Miami Dolphins was expected, although they didn’t cover the spread (-12.5 at kickoff).

Burrow Undergoes Surgery

“Unless a few upsets occur to counterbalance this trend, it could lead to another major win for the betting public,” Gray adds. “Currently, parlays are tracking at about -8% on sides, which should typically be around 15%. The start of this season has proven tough for sportsbooks. Straight bets are sitting at 54.5% for favorites, which is near the average, but moneyline and teaser combos are wreaking havoc for the average bettor with a 76% rate of favorites winning outright.”

In breaking NFL news impacting betting, Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow had successful toe surgery today, though a recovery timeline remains undetermined. Burrow was initially a favorite for the MVP title this season, alongside Bills’ QB Josh Allen and Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson.

Purdy Injury Status

49ers’ QB Brock Purdy, who is contending with shoulder and toe injuries, is deemed “highly unlikely” to start this Sunday against the Cardinals. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will miss the upcoming game against the Raiders due to a knee injury.

Adrian Horton, Senior Director of North American Sports Trading at ESPN BET, notes that the Cowboys versus Bears game is generating the most betting interest this Sunday.

“The betting line has shifted from Bears -1.5 to Cowboys -1.5 as of Friday, with two-thirds of tickets and over 75% of the handle backing Dallas,” he shared.

Lions-Ravens Total Rising

“Packers-Browns is also attracting substantial bets this weekend, with nearly 90% of the bets and handle favoring Green Bay at -7.5. In a playoff rematch, the Eagles are seeing nearly 60% of spread tickets and handle maintaining the line at -3.5 as they host the Rams this Sunday.”

The total for the Lions versus Ravens game has now climbed to 54.5, up a point from midweek and two points since its opening at 52.5. The Vikings have returned to -2.5 at home against the Colts after fluctuating between -3.5 and -2.5 earlier in the week. The total in the Steelers-Patriots matchup has also increased by a point from the opening line and now stands at 44.5.

Chiefs Chasing Their First Win

At BetMGM, the most bet games (by tickets) include Packers versus Browns, Cowboys versus Bears, Rams versus Eagles, Chiefs versus Giants, and Lions versus Ravens.

“This Week 3, popular bets are on the Chiefs looking for their first win, the Cowboys eyeing their second, and both Colts & Packers aspiring for their third victories. If these teams cover the spread, it would yield favorable outcomes for bettors, while the sportsbooks are hoping for at least one underdog to prevail,” commented Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager at BetMGM.

Bettors Focusing on Kamara

The most bet player props at BetMGM currently include: Tyler Warren (Colts) Over 47.5 Receiving Yards -110, Wan’Dale Robinson (Giants) Over 42.5 Receiving Yards -120, Alvin Kamara (Saints) Over 22.5 Receiving Yards -120, Kyle Pitts (Falcons) Over 37.5 Receiving Yards -135, and Bijan Robinson (Falcons) Over 81.5 Rushing Yards -115.