Published on: December 16, 2025, 01:55h.
Updated on: December 16, 2025, 01:55h.
- A tribal gaming leader asserts that prediction-based sports betting infringes on existing laws.
- He argues that the CFTC and the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) do not provide safeguards against such violations.
- A tribal leader in California is advocating for legislative action from Congress.
As the realm of prediction markets experiences swift growth, numerous Native American gaming figures are calling for legislative measures and enhanced scrutiny over a type of gambling that they believe undermines tribal sovereignty.
Central to Indian Country’s opposition to prediction markets are platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which critics—including tribal leaders—claim are equivalent to a novel type of sports gambling. The contracts related to sporting events provided by these prediction markets resemble an expansion of gaming operations, primarily governed by tribal entities and state voters, notably in states like California and Florida. Indian Gaming Association (IGA) Chairman David Bean states that sports betting conducted through yes/no exchanges breaches numerous regulations.
“Sports betting performed through prediction markets violates tribal, federal, and state legislation — including the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, which clearly grants tribal authorities exclusive rights to regulate gaming on Indian lands in coordination with states and the National Indian Gaming Commission (NIGC),” he stated.
Bean also points out that neither the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) nor the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversee platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, provide any protections for the offering of sports betting in states where gaming expansion is an issue for tribal governance.
Bean Critiques Prediction Markets’ Choice of Regulatory Oversight
In Bean’s view, the CFTC is the “most minimal and ineffective” financial regulatory body, suggesting that it is no surprise that prediction markets prefer to seek oversight from this agency.
He may have a point, as the fast rise of sports event contracts and, more recently, parlays on platforms like Kalshi has largely arisen through self-certification. Essentially, a prediction market operator informs the CFTC of its plans to offer a new type of contract, and if the Commission does not oppose or request additional information, those event contracts can be activated within days.
Bean insists that prediction markets exploit this regulatory inaction and that the CFTC must adopt a more active role in managing sports event contracts.
“We demand the CFTC to fulfill its responsibilities; if not, we call on Congress to amend the CEA to reinforce the existing ban on gaming,” Bean urges. “Tribes have battled for too long and worked too hard to maintain the integrity of our industry and the resources that enable tribal governments to support their communities.”
California as a Key Battlefield for Prediction Markets
As the most populous state in the U.S., California has long attracted sports betting operators. However, due to the reluctance of tribal casinos and voters to endorse online sports betting, the state has largely remained off-limits. Nonetheless, prediction markets have discovered a regulatory loophole that allows them to offer sports event contracts in California, potentially transforming the state into a contentious battleground in the ongoing debate about prediction markets.
In California, tribes hold exclusive compacts with the state, ensuring that any expansion of wagering outside the lottery involves tribal input. It’s a point that James Siva, the chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA), emphasizes. He asserts that Congress must act to safeguard tribal sovereignty.
“Congress must take immediate action to clarify that the CEA does not permit prediction markets to provide sports betting and other forms of casino-style games. Inaction puts decades of protections for consumers, states, and tribes at risk,” states the CNIGA leader.