Over $10.6 million was invested in prediction markets regarding President Donald Trump’s State of the Union speech before it occurred. Of this total, $8.6 million came from Kalshi, while Polymarket contributed $2 million.
Mention markets give users the chance to acquire contracts associated with specific words or phrases spoken during a live event. A contract is rewarded if the selected term is uttered. Notably, many of the most likely outcomes predicted beforehand were present in Trump’s comments Tuesday night.
Reference to the “250” anniversary
Kalshi estimated a 95% probability for the mention of “250”, linked to the upcoming 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776.
During his address, Trump stated, “In less than five months, our nation will mark a monumental milestone in American history, celebrating the 250th anniversary of our esteemed independence.”
He further declared, “The revolution that commenced in 1776 is ongoing. It continues today,” emphasizing the anniversary theme anticipated by traders.
Discussing sports, drugs, and energy
Kalshi set the likelihood of mentions for hockey (89%) and the Olympics/World Cup (87%). Trump acknowledged the men’s Olympic hockey team during his speech.
On drug policy, another monitored category, Kalshi assessed Fentanyl/Cocaine at a probability of 84%. Trump remarked, “The influx of deadly fentanyl across our borders has decreased by a record 56% within a year.”
Polymarket reflected a 90% likelihood that Trump would mention “oil” or “gas” at least three times. Trump noted, “American oil production has surged by over 600,000 barrels daily,” and highlighted that natural gas production is at an all-time peak.
Polymarket also indicated a 92% probability that Trump would reference “Middle East.” While he did not use the term directly in the available transcripts, he talked about ceasefire discussions in Gaza and regional diplomatic matters concerning Israel and Iran.
Frequent mentions of “America”
The most sought-after Polymarket contract prior to the speech was for Trump to say “America” or “American” at least 25 times, attracting $145,746 in investments and holding a 95% probability.
Throughout the address, Trump consistently invoked the name of the country, concluding with, “God bless you and God bless America.”
References to Biden and other figures
Polymarket set a 39% probability that Trump would refer to Biden at least ten times, accumulating $106,073 in betting. In his speech, Trump made multiple references to “the Biden administration” and “my predecessor,” including a statement, “The Biden administration and its congressional allies have delivered the worst inflation in our nation’s history.”
Other tracked markets included mentions of Israel/Gaza (92%), the Supreme Court (75% on Kalshi), and Minnesota/Minneapolis (69% on Kalshi). Trump mentioned Gaza while discussing ceasefire efforts and cited Minnesota when accusing “an estimated $19 billion” in fraud.
The address took place while Gallup recorded Trump’s approval rating at 36%, marking the lowest since he logged 34% during the final week of his initial term.
For prediction markets, the event represented a high-liquidity scenario, with contract resolutions verified in real time based solely on whether specific phrases were articulated during the nationally broadcasted speech.