Published on: December 23, 2025, at 11:12 AM.
Updated on: December 23, 2025, at 11:28 AM.
- AGA initiates a campaign against prediction markets for sports contracts
- The AGA argues these platforms jeopardize sports integrity and lack essential consumer protections
The American Gaming Association (AGA) has rolled out advertisements in targeted US markets to address the rise of prediction markets offering sports contracts.
The AGA, representing commercial and tribal gaming interests in Washington, D.C., and across state capitals, has purchased advertising space on social media and YouTube to oppose sports contracts on prediction market platforms. These markets have quickly gained traction in the United States, with major players like DraftKings and FanDuel collaborating with Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to create online exchanges for trading shares related to various outcomes, including sports events.
Casino.org has noted AGA’s YouTube advertisements asserting that sports contracts on prediction markets amount to sports betting.
“Regardless of terminology, it remains sports betting,” states the AGA’s website addressing sports contracts.
“Prediction market platforms blatantly disregard state and tribal regulations governing sports betting while offering sports event contracts. These platforms neglect crucial consumer protections, provide no advantages to local communities, and imperil the integrity of sports,” the AGA further emphasizes.
AGA’s Campaign Against Sports Contracts
The AGA rejects sports event contracts on prediction markets for several reasons.
The organization asserts that prediction markets do not adhere to integrity monitoring systems designed to identify and report suspicious betting behavior, jeopardizing the integrity of sports. Furthermore, the AGA highlights that these markets evade state gaming taxes and the federal excise tax that regulated sportsbooks must remit on each wager.
“These operators attempt to disguise their activities as something other than sports wagering, trying to circumvent the established regulatory framework, but they are not deceiving anyone,” the AGA stated.
Prediction markets contend they operate under derivative contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). They hold Designated Contract Market (DCM) licenses from the federal authority overseeing derivatives, such as futures, swaps, and specific options.
Traditionally, DCM license-holders have been exchanges focused on trading futures and options in commodities. However, Kalshi and Polymarket have redefined the DCM landscape by offering contracts on everything from celebrity events to the outcomes of major elections.
Financial Impact on States
The AGA believes prediction markets are detrimental to the fiscal health of state governments. Since these markets began to offer sports-related contracts, the group estimates that states have forfeited nearly $200 million in tax revenue.
“Legal gaming contributes $53 billion each year in state and local tax revenue, supporting facilities like hospitals, schools, and first responders in participating communities. As prediction markets operate without state and tribal authority, they provide no local employment or oversight, draining resources from communities. Each dollar that prediction markets divert from the regulated sports betting landscape diminishes funds for local support systems,” the AGA asserted.