Published on: February 24, 2026, 08:40h.
Updated on: February 24, 2026, 08:40h.
- Senators urge CFTC to prohibit “death outcome” betting markets
- Polymarket’s war and leader contracts face criticism
- CFTC’s policy shift intensifies conflict over federal jurisdiction
A coalition of Senate Democrats is pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to firmly address prediction-market contracts linked to events like warfare, terrorism, and assassination. They assert that such markets are already illegal under federal law.
This group, including Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), has requested that the CFTC elucidate its regulations pertaining to contracts that “encourage harm” or resemble gambling on real-world tragedies.
According to the existing U.S. Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC guidelines, contracts relating to warfare and terrorism are generally prohibited on registered derivative exchanges; however, platforms like Polymarket operate in a legally ambiguous space by using decentralized or offshore methods.
The senators have urged CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to “clearly assert that the CFTC will categorically ban any contract that concludes upon or is closely linked to an individual’s demise.”
Artemis II Bet
The recent Polymarket contracts concerning whether Artemis II, a NASA spaceflight mission, would explode during launch raised significant alarm. The market was withdrawn following public backlash.
“This contract not only correlated directly with crewmember fatalities but also fostered mission failure and potential insider sabotage,” the senators expressed.
Additionally, they pointed out another Polymarket contract regarding the possible ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, from which one trader gained approximately $400K by betting “yes” just hours before President Donald Trump announced the U.S. operation capturing Maduro.
In another instance mentioned by the lawmakers, Polymarket resolved a contract regarding whether Russian troops would seize the Ukrainian town of Myrnohad by November 15.
Subsequent media revelations suggested a staff member from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War altered the group’s battlefield map to depict Russian dominance over a vital intersection in the town, despite a lack of solid evidence. Following Polymarket’s payout on “yes,” this edit inexplicably vanished.
The CFTC previously took enforcement action against Polymarket in 2022, imposing a $1.4 million fine and mandating the closure of markets deemed in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act.
CFTC’s Lenient Stance
Nonetheless, Polymarket now seems to be preparing for a regulated U.S. re-launch as the CFTC indicates a more lenient stance toward prediction markets overall. The agency has increasingly defended these platforms in court against state-level efforts to restrict them.
“It seems you plan to lead the Commission in a direction that conflicts with the objectives of the Commodity Exchange Act, alongside respect for state laws and tribal sovereignty,” the senators noted.
“The tangible repercussions are already visible,” they continued. “Prediction market platforms are offering contracts that resemble traditional sportsbook bets and, in some cases, contracts associated with warfare and armed conflict. These products bypass state and tribal consumer protections, yield no public income, and undermine sovereign regulatory frameworks.”