Date Published: October 2, 2024, 10:50h.
Last Updated: October 2, 2024, 11:04h.
The sole vice presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle was a notably civil occasion compared to the previous encounter of the candidates’ respective running mates. The discussion, lasting over 90 minutes, was genial and focused on policy, providing US Sen JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz with a key opportunity to introduce themselves to the American populace.
In what many viewed as a refreshing display of civility between two candidates vying for a position in the White House, Vance and Walz engaged in a substantive discussion covering the economy, immigration, abortion, climate change, foreign policy, the housing shortage, and gun safety.
Vance and Walz found common ground on several issues. However, a pivotal moment for the governor was when he questioned Vance on whether he would have certified the 2020 election outcome, similar to then-Vice President Mike Pence.
“Tim, I’m focused on the future,” Vance responded. “That is a damning non-answer,” Walz retorted.
The governor also had his moments of misstep. Walz acknowledged that he had inaccurately claimed to be present in Hong Kong and China during the 1989 protests in Tiananmen Square, a claim that was proven false.
“I’ve not been perfect, and I’m a knucklehead at times,” Walz admitted.
Stable Odds
While both Walz and Vance had their ups and downs during the debate, many political analysts believed that the Republican vice presidential candidate emerged as the winner, except for the segment regarding certification of the 2020 outcome. Given that Donald Trump is ineligible to run in 2028, Vance’s stance on certifying the 2028 results for Trump may not hold much significance.
Most voters are more concerned with current issues such as inflation, high housing costs, and abortion, rather than the events of 2020. Despite a potential victory for Vance in the debate, political bettors did not anticipate a significant impact on the November 5 results.
The prediction market for the presidential election on Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer betting exchange for real money political event predictions, remained steady with Kamala Harris at 50% implied odds to Trump’s 49%. Over $1.1 billion has been wagered on the election, although Polymarket does not accept US customers.
On PredictIt, a political betting platform accessible to US-based bettors, Harris’ odds remained steady at 55%, while Trump saw a slight increase to 49%.
Smarkets has the race at a dead heat, with both candidates’ odds implying an outcome of 49.5%. Less than $10 million has been wagered on this peer-to-peer platform.
International Odds
In Europe and the UK, where bookmakers offer odds on election outcomes globally, Trump has narrowed the gap with Harris.
William Hill, a prominent sportsbook, has Harris and Trump at 10/11 (-110), implying a 52.38% winning likelihood. Previously, Trump had slightly longer odds at even money (1/1, +100).
With only 33 days remaining until the November 5 election, early voting is underway in numerous states.