Published on: January 16, 2026, 04:44h.
Updated on: January 16, 2026, 04:44h.
- Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are currently restricted in Canada
- The Ontario Securities Commission penalized Polymarket last year
- There may be a potential avenue for prediction markets to enter the market
The buzz surrounding prediction markets in the U.S. has reached remarkable heights, with trading volumes skyrocketing into the billions. This prompts a natural inquiry from Canadians: How soon will these platforms be legally permitted to function within their borders?
Trading volumes, which stood at a modest $100 million in early 2024, surged to over $13 billion by the close of 2025. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have integrated into leading exchanges and crypto wallets, becoming sources for real-time probability data utilized by financial news outlets, including CNN’s collaboration with Kalshi.
Prominent sports leagues, including the NHL, have also engaged in partnerships with Kalshi and Polymarket, further validating these platforms’ credibility.
Are these platforms gambling instruments or financial products? They offer binary wagers—bets on a “yes” or “no” outcome. In traditional sports betting, individuals bet against the house, while in prediction markets, they wager against one another. The platforms earn revenue through transaction fees.
Mega Market Potential
Some of the top prediction bets on Polymarket in the past 24 hours included “Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?” (90% probability of no handshake), “Will Antonio Jose Seguro win the first round of the 2026 presidential election?” (53% yes), and “Will TrumpRX launch by January 31, 2026?” (56% yes).
As CBC reported, someone profited significantly (over $400,000 from a $30,000 bet) by wagering on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the end of January, reviving discussions about the risks of mixing prediction markets with privileged insider information.
In the U.S., regulation of prediction markets falls under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Prohibited in Canada
Platforms offering binary wagers like those from Polymarket and Kalshi face restrictions in Canada.
The online sports betting landscape in Ontario is rapidly expanding, as evidenced by the latest iGaming Ontario financial data. The Total Non-Adjusted Gross Gaming Revenue (NAGGR) hit a record CAD $406.2 million, reflecting a notable 10% increase from the previous month. Ontarians are fully embracing legal sports betting, with 34 out of 48 licensed igaming providers offering sportsbook services.
But could prediction markets break into Canada down the line?
Legal Opportunities Ahead?
Matthew Burgoyne, a Partner at Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP and chair of their Digital Assets and Blockchain practice, elaborated:
“In December 2017, Canadian securities regulators issued Multilateral Instrument 91-102 Prohibition of Binary Options (MI 91-102),” he shared via email. “MI 91-102 describes a binary option as a yes/no contract that pays a fixed amount if a certain condition is fulfilled and nothing (or another fixed amount) if it is not, based on a related asset or event.
“Since most centralized crypto prediction markets involve yes/no, fixed-payout bets, they resemble crypto-settled binary options, which means offering them to Canadian residents may fall under the MI 91-102 prohibition. While there is an exception for contracts with a duration of 30 days or longer, this likely wouldn’t extend to typical crypto prediction markets, which usually list short-term political and event contracts lasting from hours to a few weeks.”
Polymarket’s Penalty by OSC
The Ontario Securities Commission reached a settlement with Polymarket’s operators last April, including a two-year ban from Ontario’s capital markets and over CAD $200,000 in penalties for violating MI 91-102 by marketing their products to Ontario investors from June 2020 to May 2023.
As CBC highlighted, users outside Ontario can employ VPNs to bypass restrictions on accessing platforms like Polymarket, indicating gaps in the regulatory framework.
Nonetheless, there are legal avenues available, according to Burgoyne:
“Realistically, the route for a centralized crypto prediction market in Canada would likely necessitate the company seeking an exemption from MI 91-102 through provincial securities regulators,” he noted. “Canadian securities regulators have the authority under the Instrument to grant exemptions with specific conditions and limitations.”
Market Integration Prospects
If such exemptions were granted, would Canadians embrace prediction markets similar to the U.S. trend? Opinions vary.
“It would be wise to focus on encouraging provinces to utilize their available resources against unlicensed operators while ensuring residents have measures for responsible gaming, anti-money laundering protocols, and verification of financial and identity credentials,” stated Amanda Brewer, Senior Vice President of Policy and Communications at the Canadian Gaming Association.
“If other provinces adopt Ontario’s model by offering diverse products, including prop bets, we will see significant advancements. However, currently, there is little interest in broadening access to prediction markets, especially since many provinces are still navigating their own grey market concerns.”
Abundant Choices for Bettors
According to a senior industry insider, it seems unlikely that prediction markets will gain traction in Canada as they have in the U.S., mainly because regions like Ontario haven’t capped the number of licensed sports betting operators.
“Ontario has 48 regulated operators,” the insider explained. “In the rest of the country, there exists a grey market with an indeterminate number of operators catering to customers across various segments, including casino, sports, poker, and bingo. This diminishes the necessity for Canadians to consider additional alternatives.
“In the U.S., this has become a pressing issue due to multiple poor policy decisions, including capping the number of (OSB) providers and imposing requirements for association with land-based facilities. Additionally, while sports betting is allowed, the same isn’t true for casinos in several instances.”