Published on: August 29, 2025, at 11:53 AM.
Updated on: August 29, 2025, at 11:53 AM.
- A growing number of analysts are optimistic about Wynn’s UAE casino resort.
- UBS has upgraded its rating on the stock based on the UAE opportunity.
- An analyst suggests Wynn’s projections for the UAE may be overly cautious.
Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN)’s Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is increasingly capturing the interest of analysts, positioning it as a significant catalyst for the company’s stock performance in the long term.
On Thursday, UBS analyst Robin Farley upgraded Wynn shares from “hold” to “buy,” highlighting the probable upside from the UAE resort, while suggesting that the company’s estimates may be overly conservative regarding the first regulated gaming establishment in the Middle East.
“We project an adjusted property earnings run rate before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and management fees (EBITDAM) of $730 million, indicating substantial upside compared to WYNN’s base estimate of $625 million,” Farley stated. “With Wynn being the sole gaming operator in the UAE, they are positioned to establish loyalty among ultra-high-net-worth international clientele.”
Farley has raised her price target for Wynn to $147, up from $101, suggesting a nearly 16% upside from current prices. The stock has risen 47.24% this year, reaching a 52-week peak recently.
Wynn UAE Casino: A Potential to Exceed Estimates
Based in Las Vegas, Wynn has openly described its UAE venture as a highly appealing opportunity with promising long-term growth potential. However, as Farley points out, the company’s forecasts might be too cautious.
The analyst believes her $730 million EBITDAM estimate is on the higher end of Wynn’s forecast, which ranges from $500 million to $800 million. Some gaming industry experts predict that the UAE could evolve into the fourth-largest gaming market worldwide, behind Macau, Las Vegas, and Singapore.
If casino gaming is approved in other emirates, the UAE may well ascend to fourth place among global gaming markets. Several analysts project that future integrated resorts could generate an annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) ranging from $3 billion to $5 billion. Despite this, Wynn Al Marjan Island is set to enjoy a multi-year monopoly, fostering loyalty among affluent locals and international tourists.
Farley emphasizes Wynn’s “gaming-plus” strategy as potentially beneficial in the UAE. This strategy centers around enhancing luxury offerings, gourmet dining experiences, high-quality entertainment, and upscale shopping options, shifting focus away from gambling. UBS estimates that Wynn Al Marjan Island could have a value of $34 per share, significantly exceeding the current share price of $7 to $12.
Macau Driving Wynn Stock Performance
With the UAE casino hotel anticipated to open in early 2027 and the Las Vegas Strip experiencing slow growth, Wynn’s fortunes are anchored in Macau, which is witnessing a notable rebound in gross gaming revenue (GGR), nearing pre-pandemic highs.
UBS has revised its GGR growth forecasts for Macau for this year and 2026, projecting increases of 8% and 5%, respectively, and suggesting that Wynn is poised to sustain or enhance its strong positioning among both premium mass players and VIPs. Farley has raised her valuation for Wynn’s Macau operations to $76 per share, up from $49.