The nominations for the 2026 Emmy Awards have been unveiled! Renowned stars in the television industry are eagerly anticipating whether their performances will receive well-deserved accolades. Topping the list of contenders is the medical drama *The Pitt*, boasting an impressive 25 nominations, closely trailed by *Hacks* with 24 nods.
In the past week, prediction markets on Polymarket have seen a surge, presenting odds for 22 categories that will be highlighted during the live ceremony. Should you consider placing a wager on “Yes” for Rhea Seehorn, or is Matthew Rhys a smart investment? I’ve sifted through various prediction markets to identify the top-value options for fans of quality television.
Take advantage of our exclusive Polymarket bonus (CORG), earning you $50 after registering and depositing $20. For further options to bet on The Emmys, explore our guide to the leading entertainment and culture prediction markets.
Odds for Outstanding Comedy Series
This market initially caught my attention. The series *Hacks* shows the highest likelihood at 55%, with *Widow’s Bay* close behind at 43%. You can purchase “Yes” on *Hacks*, the critically acclaimed dark comedy led by multi-Emmy winner Jean Smith, for 55.5¢, while *Widow’s Bay*, a horror-comedy set in New England, is available for 44¢.
Nonetheless, several reports have recently pushed for *Widow’s Bay* to achieve a clean sweep. The rookie series on Apple TV has garnered praise from both critics and audiences alike, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see its odds shift downward as we approach the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards.
“Widow’s Bay” | “Yes” at 43¢ | 43% Probability
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<strong>Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?</strong><br/>Yes 43% · No 57%<br/>
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</figcaption>Additional competitors in this category available on Polymarket include:
- *The Bear* | 1% probability | Yes 1¢
- *Only Murders in the Building* | 2% probability | Yes 2.8¢
- *Margot’s Got Money Troubles* | 2% probability | Yes 3.1¢
- *Nobody Wants This* | 1% probability | Yes 2.5¢
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Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Forecasts
After prior nominations for her roles in *Cooper’s Bar* and *Better Call Saul*, it seems almost certain that Rhea Seehorn will finally claim her first Emmy. Polymarket participants estimate an 81% chance she’ll receive the “Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series” award for her portrayal of Carol Sturka in *Pluribus*. This is part of a total of 18 nominations for the post-apocalyptic sci-fi series.
Keri Russell from *The Diplomat* is Seehorn’s nearest competitor. However, Russell’s probabilities have dwindled recently, currently resting at just 12%. Nevertheless, the former Golden Globe winner could still be a valuable buy at 12.7¢, should you choose to sell before the ceremony at the Peacock Theatre in Los Angeles.
“Keri Russell” | “Yes” at 12.7¢ | 12% Probability
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<strong>Will Keri Russell – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?</strong><br/>Yes 12% · No 88%<br/>
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</figcaption>Other actresses featured on Polymarket include:
- Zendaya – *Euphoria* | 7% probability | Yes 7.8¢
- Carrie Coon – *The Gilded Age* | 1% probability | Yes 1.7¢
- Chase Infiniti – *The Testaments* | 1% probability | Yes 1.3¢
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series Predictions
It’s a rare sight to see a candidate in Emmy prediction markets boasting a 93% likelihood more than two months ahead of the announcement. This is the case for Noah Wyle, despite fellow nominees Mark Ruffalo and Gary Oldman.
This would mark a consecutive win for Wyle in this category after taking home the award for his role as the tough Dr. Robby in *The Pitt* last year. Renowned for his performances in *ER* and *The Red Line*, his odds have risen from 78% as of July 10.
Ruffalo, Oldman, and Sterling K. Brown are all estimated to have a 3% chance. However, the “No” prices ranging from 97.6¢ to 98.5¢ reveal how shocking it would be if Wyle didn’t secure the victory.
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<strong>Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?</strong><br/>Yes 93% · No 8%<br/>
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</figcaption>Other Noteworthy 2026 Emmys Markets to Monitor
The Emmys market on Polymarket is rich with almost limitless choices. Here are some additional markets that are worth your attention.
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
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<strong>Will “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?</strong><br/>Yes 49% · No 51%<br/>
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</figcaption>I’m intrigued by the “Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series” market on Polymarket—not solely because my personal favorite *Beef* is in contention. Currently, *DTF St. Louis* takes the lead, and you can buy “Yes” for the dark comedy mini-series featuring Linda Cardellini, David Harbor, and Jason Bateman at 53¢.
Although the HBO contender’s odds have decreased from 63% on July 12, *Beef* has similarly seen declining probabilities, going from a 51% chance in mid-July to a current buy price of 36¢.
Expect significant attention on Carey Mulligan as she seeks to capture the award for “Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie,” with traders estimating her chances at 44%.
Outstanding Variety Series
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<strong>Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?</strong><br/>Yes 44% · No 56%<br/>
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</figcaption>While *The Pitt* and *Hacks* shine in various categories, this market brings together the finest talk show hosts in America. The competition is tight among *Last Week Tonight With John Oliver*, *Jimmy Kimmel Live!*, and *The Late Show With Stephen Colbert*. Since 2003, only Colbert and Jon Stewart have won this award.
Therefore, purchasing *The Late Show* at 15¢ could prove wise, particularly as it had a 50% probability on July 12.
Leveraging Other Awards Events to Enhance Predictions
There is frequently a discernible link between the Emmys and various other award ceremonies. Certain events include shared members, providing traders insights into potential winners who might add a new trophy to their collection.
2026 Golden Globes
- Noah Wyle (Best Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama)
- Rhea Seehorn (Best Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama)
- Jean Smart (Best Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy)
- *The Pitt* (Best Television Series – Drama)
2026 Critics’ Choice Awards
- Noah Wyle (Best Actor in a Drama Series)
- Rhea Seehorn (Best Actress in a Drama Series)
- Katherine LaNasa (Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series)
- Jean Smart (Best Actress in a Comedy Series)
- *Jimmy Kimmel Live!* (Best Talk Show)
- *Last Week Tonight With John Oliver* (Best Variety Series)
- *The Pitt* (Best Drama Series)
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