Published on: September 12, 2025, 02:01h.
Updated on: September 12, 2025, 02:01h.
- Markets react to the passing of conservative figure
- Kalshi retracts bets concerning Kirk’s political prospects
- Polymarket initiates trades on potential civil unrest
Kalshi took action following the death of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, retracting markets related to the pundit’s political ambitions.
The prediction market operator had been offering a yes/no bet regarding whether Kirk would pursue a political career, but this option was removed after he was assassinated at a college in Utah on Wednesday. Additional markets concerning Kirk, such as whether he would engage in a debate with Nick Fuentes or the frequency of his likeness appearing on “South Park,” were also taken down by Kalshi.
“We are devasted by the tragic news of Charlie Kirk’s passing,” a message sent to Kalshi customers stated.
All bets placed following Kirk’s death will be nullified, and all related wagers will be refunded to customers.
Connection Between Trump and Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi, the foremost operators in the prediction market sphere, have extensive ties to the Trump Administration. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, serves as an advisor to both futures exchanges. He joined Kalshi in January, and last month, his venture capital firm invested in Polymarket while he took on an advisory role with the company.
It remains uncertain whether these connections influenced Kalshi’s choice to eliminate markets related to Kirk, but it is well-known that Trump Jr. and his brother Eric had a close relationship with the conservative figure. In interviews on Wednesday with Newsmax, the brothers praised Kirk, with Trump Jr. suggesting that his friend could have been a serious presidential contender in the future.
Kirk, known for engaging college audiences and debating often-hostile crowds, played a pivotal role in attracting younger voters, many of whom are involved in betting and prediction markets, to Trump’s campaign for the 2024 presidential election.
“The great and legendary Charlie Kirk has passed away,” the president wrote in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday. “No one understood the youth of America better than Charlie. He was cherished and respected by all, especially me, and he has left us. Melania and I extend our sympathies to his lovely wife Erika and family. Charlie, we will miss you!”
Polymarket Presents Provocative Bet
Polymarket, known for its contentious offerings, has listed an open bet regarding the likelihood of the U.S. descending into a civil conflict by the end of this year. At the time of writing, this market has garnered a volume of $54,348, with 96.6% of bets favoring the “no” option.
“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the United States enters a state of civil war by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET,” the operator stated.
The comments section reveals discussions on a potential interest in extending the timeline to 2026 and speculations that the current market is undervalued.