Published on: October 23, 2025, 07:55h.
Updated on: October 23, 2025, 07:55h.
- Aspinall to defend heavyweight title against Gane this Saturday
- Caesars Sportsbook lists Aspinall at -380
This weekend, the heavyweight championship bout at UFC 321 in Dubai features not Jon Jones or Alex Pereira, but it is undeniable that Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane represent the pinnacle of MMA heavyweights.
Insights from Tyson on Heavyweight Fights
When it comes to heavyweight boxing, who better to consult than Mike Tyson? During a conversation with rapper Fat Joe for Hard Rock Bet, he was questioned about any interest in joining UFC.
“No, because listen, even if you combine the earnings of five top UFC fighters, it wouldn’t match what I earn,” Tyson stated. “I aim to be the top fighter, with the biggest paycheck. Whenever I fight, I steal the spotlight.”
Nonetheless, both Aspinall and Gane are anticipated to earn substantial sums for their fight this Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi.
Aspinall Favored in Betting Odds
Mark Collier, a BetVictor trader, shares his partiality towards Aspinall, given his British roots.
“Both Tom and Ciryl possess power, skills, speed, and various winning strategies—qualities not typically associated with heavyweights,” Collier told Casino.org. “However, early betting trends suggest people are predicting a quick finish, possibly inside two rounds. Is this a traditional betting mindset or a strategic choice considering the fighters involved?”
His forecast: Aspinall winning by submission (+300 in Las Vegas), and a prediction for Over 1.5 Rounds (-120 in Las Vegas).
Grappling Dynamics
“We believe that given the nature of the heavyweight division and the inherent risks, Tom will likely target Gane’s grappling weaknesses, akin to Jon Jones’s strategy two years ago (Round 1 Submission),” remarked Collier.
“Ciryl will aim to keep the fight standing to counter Aspinall’s strengths and test the Brit’s stamina in later rounds.”
“Taking this into account, we foresee the bout extending beyond 1.5 rounds (currently 4/6 with BetVictor), with Tom gaining the upper hand on the ground. Although Aspinall is capable of replicating Jones’s success at UFC 285, Gane is expected to have improved in this area and prove more resilient.
“Nevertheless, with Tom’s refined fight strategy, composure, and patience, we predict he will demonstrate that this new generation of heavyweights can excel in endurance contests rather than relying solely on knockouts.”
UFC Card Early Start
Brandon Yaeger, Combat Sports Lead Trader at Caesars Sportsbook, noted Aspinall’s widespread appeal among bettors, especially since Jones, often regarded as the greatest heavyweight, appeared reluctant to fight him.
“I anticipate that Tom Aspinall will garner most of the betting action, primarily through parlay bets, given he is a -400 favorite, which diminishes straight betting value,” he commented.
“The reasoning is clear; we’ve seen Gane’s deficiencies on the ground… Francis Ngannou, who isn’t a wrestler, was able to control him (in January 2022), and Jones effortlessly took him down and submitted him at UFC 285 (March 2023). It wouldn’t surprise me if Aspinall achieved a similar outcome against someone who arguably does not deserve a title shot.”
Upcoming Women’s Title Match
The UFC 321 card kicks off at 2 p.m. EST on Saturday, featuring a women’s strawweight title showdown between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern.
However, the spotlight remains on the heavyweight clash.
“Typically, when fighters are favored at such odds, the public tends to wager on the underdog, but that trend hasn’t emerged for this matchup yet,” Yaeger remarked. “Despite a low count of straight bets on him, Aspinall serves as a highly favored element for parlay bets, and I expect his Method of Victory and Round finish odds to attract significant interest this week.”
Considering the current odds: Aspinall is at -380 at Caesars Sportsbook, Gane at +300, Aspinall at -345 at DraftKings, Gane at +275, and at FanDuel, Aspinall is listed at -400 and Gane at +300.