Posted on: February 21, 2026, 01:38h.

Last updated on: February 21, 2026, 01:38h.

• Canada emerges as a narrow betting favorite ahead of tomorrow’s Olympic gold medal hockey clash against the USA
• Canada’s captain Sidney Crosby, currently nursing a lower body injury, remains a game-time decision
• Early morning game set to influence betting volumes

The odds are neck and neck for the Olympic gold medal men’s hockey face-off between the U.S. and Canada, with Brady Tkachuk of the USA perfectly capturing the competitive nature of this rivalry as they gear up for a monumental match.

“There’s a real animosity,” he shared with ESPN’s Emily Kaplan. “They’ve held the top spot for years, and we want to take that from them. This is a game where many players can claim it’s the biggest they’ve ever participated in.”

Fierce Rivalry

The pivotal storyline revolves around Canada’s captain Sidney Crosby, who sustained a significant knee injury during the quarterfinal match against Czechia. Prior to the tournament, the Canadian roster boasted formidable centremen, including Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Crosby himself. Crosby’s injury disrupted the lineup, prompting Canadian coach Jon Cooper to assemble a power-packed line featuring McDavid, MacKinnon, and 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini.

According to Kaplan, signs indicate Crosby is likely to participate tomorrow. Canada has conducted private practices, primarily to allow Crosby to evaluate his knee’s condition. Crosby practiced with the team today, although defenceman Josh Morrissey is confirmed out for the match.

Betting experts are closely monitoring the Crosby situation as well. This matchup presents a chance for McDavid, considered the top player globally, to shine brightly. Will USA captain Auston Matthews, who has faced challenges in major NHL playoff moments with the Toronto Maple Leafs, seize his defining opportunity? Additionally, how will the starting goalies fare – Team USA’s Connor Hellebuyck or Canada’s Jordan Binnington?

According to various sportsbooks, Canada holds a slight betting advantage.

Close Betting Lines

The USA aims to secure its first gold medal in Olympic men’s hockey since the 1980 Miracle on Ice team in Lake Placid and seeks to avenge last winter’s emotional overtime loss to Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off final.

At DraftKings in Ontario, Canada is listed at -125, with the USA at +105. The puckline stands at Canada -1.5 (+215) and the USA +1.5 (-265), accompanied by Over 5.5 (+130) and Under 5.5 (-155). At FanDuel in Ontario, Canada is at -122 and the USA at +102, with the puckline being Canada -1.5 (+205) and the USA +1.5 (-260), and Over 5.5 (+128) and Under 5.5 (-158).

“National bias is influencing the odds (similar to Jays/Dodgers in the World Series),” noted Phill Gray, former head of sports betting operations at Sports Interaction. “Right now in the U.S., the game is pretty much even, while in Canada, there’s a marginal advantage at -111. However, in Ontario, Canada’s odds have reached as high as -130, likely reflecting the substantial number of Canadian bets. USA at +108 or better represents solid value, as I see the game as essentially even.

Crosby’s Status Uncertain

“Crosby’s game-time status and his potential effectiveness if he plays will certainly affect the betting line. If he doesn’t play, I anticipate a surge of money funneled towards the USA, even from Canada at that price, which will further shift the line. This change will likely happen quickly, as the announcement will be made shortly before puck drop,” he added. “The in-play betting line would adjust, so I expect USA to become a slight favorite right from the start.”

At theScore Bet, as of now, 38.3% of bets and 69.1% of handle are on Canada -1.5, while 64.8% of bets and 62.7% of the handle are backing USA ML, with 45.7% of bets and 60.8% of the handle pointing to Under 5.5.

Gray stressed that the early start (8:10 a.m. EST) will also affect betting patterns. “While this event is certainly significant, the early time will likely result in lower volume than expected,” he remarked. “Typically, most events garner over half of their betting volume within the hours right before the game begins, so this early start will play a role.”