Date of Posting: February 24, 2026, 04:33h.
Updated on: February 24, 2026, 04:54h.
- Traders on prediction markets are actively engaging with potential outcomes of Trump’s speech tonight.
- Over $10 million in trading volume has been recorded across Polymarket and Predict related to the State of the Union.
- As is customary for presidents, Trump is anticipated to emphasize his perceived achievements.
This afternoon, President Donald Trump hosted network news anchors at The White House, providing a preview of his State of the Union address scheduled for tonight.
Prediction markets, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, have encountered challenges from the legal gambling community, state legislators, and various attorneys general. However, the Trump administration, along with CFTC chair Michael Selig, appears committed to affirming these markets’ rights to offer contracts on diverse topics, ranging from sports outcomes to presidential speeches.
In anticipation of the State of the Union, both Kalshi and Polymarket have registered over $10 million in trading transactions.
Trump is poised to reflect on his first year back in office, likely discussing issues such as large-scale deportations, deregulation efforts, and his emphasis on law and order. The president may also touch on economic strategies, escalating tensions with Iran, the partial government shutdown, and the prevailing divisive political landscape.
What Will Trump Say?
While Americans will log on at 9 pm EST to hear the president’s address, many prediction market participants are eagerly awaiting the potential success of their investments.
Jonathan Karl, the chief White House correspondent for ABC News, provided insight after attending the White House luncheon. He stated that Trump intends to focus heavily on the economy and propose new tax cuts, outlining his vision to ensure that the “next three years” become the most prosperous in US history.
This is favorable for those trading on economic topics; Kalshi traders have placed bets on Trump mentioning “stock market” at a value of 88 cents. On Polymarket, shares concerning the president referencing “oil” or “gas” three or more times are currently trading at 92 cents, with profitable shares redeemable at $1.
According to Kalshi traders, there is a strong belief that the president will refer to his prescription service, TrumpRX, with shares priced at 86 cents. Additionally, terms like “nuclear” (85 cents), “hottest” (84 cents), and “rare Earth minerals” (74 cents) are anticipated to be mentioned.
References to the White House Ballroom (53 cents), Kamala Harris (40 cents), and Trump’s upcoming UFC match on the White House Lawn (35 cents) are considered less likely.
Furthermore, Polymarket traders are predicting a 96% chance that Trump will say “America” or “American” at least 25 times, though the likelihood drops to 85% for 50 or more mentions of the country.
Regarding speech length, prediction markets indicate a preference for 105 minutes or longer, with shares trading at a 64% implied likelihood. The chances of Trump choosing a tie color other than red (25%) or blue (8%) suggest that “other” colors have a 68% probability.
Democratic Boycott
Numerous seats will remain empty on stage right of the podium, as many Democratic representatives have chosen to boycott the State of the Union address.
At least 20 House Democrats and nine Senate Democrats have made public their decision to skip the event. Notable absentees include US Rep. Dina Titus from Nevada, who is advocating for legislation to revert the gambling tax deduction for itemized filers back to 100%.